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Old 28th Sep 2007, 19:44
  #12 (permalink)  
nicholasblonde
 
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PS> I have looked into the IndiGo thing, and I would also caution as to company outlooks. One thing we all need to keep in mind is this--there is a lot of consolidation that could happen in the next 10 years. That market is where the US and Euro markets were in the 60s--rapidly expanding and deregulating.

Right now it's in the rapid expansion phase...like everything else in nature, financial markets, and every other industry--right after massive expansion and growth of a sector, there is inevitably a survival of the fittest and whoever wins out might not be who you work for.

The only thing that troubles me about IndiGo is that they aren't getting into the lucrative international routes...companies like King and Jet have multiple revenue streams--transcon flights, transcon + domestic connection flights, AND domestic flights. That gives them a lot of stability that can outsurvive any local economic recessions...whereas if India's economy ever cools, the domestic-only carriers will get hit hard.

Those 100 A320s on order are predicated on India's economy continuing to bring 5% of the poor into the middle class every year...that's not necessarily going to continue (though I hope it does!)
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