I had a career with PanAm in USA, hired in 1968, until the 1991 bankruptcy, this with long layoff period 1972-1982, when I was forced to fly overseas, or instructing at the PanAm academy. There is no single factor responsible for the "shortage" of pilots, there are many of them.
xxx
The last posting here mentions age 60 retirement, one of the reasons. This applied to pilots (not flight engineers, who could continue to fly with NO age limit whatsoever). I flew with "old farts" with various foreign air carriers, in my F/O days, and still remember them as the most competent and experienced captains I ever flew with. My recommendation would be to make age retirement function of the issuance of a 1st class medical only, this maybe with the following limitations: only one pilot over age 60 to operate in a cockpit crew, and no transition to other type aircraft after age 60 (as you do not teach "old dogs new tricks").
xxx
The culture of "big airplane, big salary" in the USA. Let me explain... Upgrade to captain and transition to bigger planes is function of seniority with USA air carriers... all ok... but a problem, I saw when I was with PanAm, and with my friends who were with other airlines. An example... a friend with UAL, now retired, who got hired in 1968...
xxx
He trained, in sequence, from F/E 727, to F/E 720, to F/E DC-8, to F/O 727, F/O DC-8, then F/E DC-10, then F/O 727 again, then F/O DC-10, then capt. 737, capt. 727, capt. DC-10, then finally capt. 747... spending some unproductive 36 months in training during his career... besides moving 3 times, suffering 2 divorces, and years of commuting between domicile and bases, spending nights of "reserve" in cheap motels next to noisy airports. Why this... salary structure... besides having higher salary when you upgrade to F/O and captain, the bigger the plane, the more money...
xxx
When I was with PanAm, I lived in the Los Angeles area. I never got based at LAX (my first choice, near home) or SFO (my second choice, easy commute). I was based at JFK or MIA. Do you know where pilots who did bid LAX or SFO lived...? New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusets etc... These gentlemen loved to commute for the extra few dollars to fly bigger airplanes on longer Pacific sectors...
xxx
Another friend, KLM, got hired in 1971, as F/O DC-9, then DC-10 F/O, then DC-10 captain, then retired as MD-11 captain. Compared to my UAL buddy, he probably spent very little unproductive time in training, and certainly was highly experienced with 30 years (20,000 hrs?) on DC-10/MD-11 types... With KLM, the size of plane you fly has very little to do with your salary. Salary increases come with position and longevity based on date of hire...
xxx
Pilot shortage... ok... airlines in USA do not hire "direct entry captains", because of union contracts, except maybe 747 operators like Evergreen or Kalitta... (and these two for what salary?). A PanAm colleague joined Kalitta in 1994, as 747 captain. His first year salary was around $50,000. He retired fairly recently (2003), he never exceeded $85,000 during his Kalitta career.
xxx
No wonder I bailed out of USA in 1992 for the "third world", and happy I did. Here in Argentina, senior pilots love the 737 and MD-80, working 18 days a month, and be home almost every night... They have 30 yrs seniority, and make double salary than myself, 747 pilot, with my 13 yrs. Besides that, I spend 7 to 10 nights away from home each month... on top of being in the office or classrooms on the days I do not fly, to make a little extra money.
xxx
In view of all this, I have no sympathy for USA operators, and certainly not for regionals, who remain to me, glorified "135" commuter carriers. If given to be age 25 again, I could not afford the salaries offered to new hires, especially having disbursed a fortune to get a type rating on a little jet... In the old days, airlines hired F/Os or F/Es with a CPL/IR, which in the late 1960s, was a $5,000 investment...
xxx
Consider a career in hamburger sales, and buy yourself a McDonald franchise, rather than throwing your parent's hard earned money in a CRJ type rating. The only winners are these "airline type rating schools" who must laugh their way to the bank... Let the airlines cancel their flights, short of pilots... and insist they double their wages. In 1968, gasoline was 29 cents a gallon, I filled-up my Corvair with $3.oo, and gave 25 cents tip to the attendant who cleaned my windshield, checked my oil, and verified the tire pressures.
xxx
Happy contrails