Emirates
According to reports in the industry, the EK DXB service has outstripped demand before it has even started. The first few flights atleast are apparantly completed sold out, and the revenue from the cargo capacity is a money spinner for EK. Passengers are taking full advantage at the amount of connections available from the DXB hub, in addition to geordies having somewhere different to bake in the sun. There is a possibility of seeing the odd 777, however I would think a 2nd daily service on a 2 class A330 would happen first, with maybe a morning and evening departure.
NCL Charter Market
Next summer, NCL will see consolidation in the charter market, it seems that with the increasing number of build your own holiday options that the package guys are decreasing capacity. TOM have planned for 2 757, 1 737 for their sched loco routes, with the 767 passing through sat-mon doing the CUN, PUJ and SFB rotations. It is still unclear what will be based by the TCX group, wether the former MYT 320 aircraft will stay, making a total of 3 based aircraft is not yet confirmed.
The XL group have cut the number of routes and aircraft dramatically. Only 1 737-800, together with a sub aircraft from Air Malta will be based, offering a smaller range of flights. This is possibly due to them loosing some MYT work, together with their Flight Only sales being less than satisfactory (the reason their winter programme was cut).
Scheduled Network/Low Cost
Lufthansa have always said that if the load factors were pleasing then a 2nd daily DUS would be added. It seems to be working well, so maybe they will think of FRA, however the possibility of gaining suitable slots at FRA could be a stumbling block, though a huge business centre like FRA would be a good route from NCL, as really we only have BRU, AMS, CDG and LON.
EasyJet, I don't honestly believe will allow NCL to just stagnate. They maybe are just consolidating their market for the quieter winter months, as they do now face competiton from Jet2, in a small-ish market like the NE. I would be surprised to see LTN appear, but then again loco's do tend to surprise! Routes like VCE, NAP, DBV, SZG and some of the Polish cities could work on a 3/4 weekly basis?
Jet2 seem to be comitted to NCL, though they have experienced problems with their aircraft, which seem to have been resolved now. I am convinced we will see further routes from them in the next 12 months, just look at what they have started in the past 12/18 months. My one fear is that they will expand too quickly and their problems could re-appear, which is never nice to see.
I would love to see BE establish a healthy operation from NCL. With aircraft like a Dash, with small capacity then there are numerous destinations viable, which maybe unprofitable for other locos with larger aircraft to operate. This could well be a long way off, if it ever happens as the airline are still working through a massive merger, together with a major crew shortage.
Wizz - don't think we'll ever see them at NCL as they seem to have developed a healthy relationship with anothe rmajor airport grouping.
SkyEurope - possible?
Germany/Italy - Air Berlin is another strong possibility, as is TUIFly, but did they not cancel 2 routes they used to fly from NCL, due to low demand?
If an italian airline were thinking of NCL, I would say it would have tobe a loco, Air One, MyAir, Air Italy? Highly unlikely to be AZ or Neos.
The future could look good, though my rant over Airport facilities will continue. This issue IMHO does need to improve.
- International Arrivals door still tech, security have to swipe and open side access door for every flight - sometimes they are late and pax get trapped.
- Slightly improved immigration area - atlast.
- Escalator at arrivals never, ever operational.
- Security still way under staffed, as is coaches and wheelchair service.
Still, gradually things seem to be improving and rumour has it that the checkin conveyor belt system will be replaced over the winter, reducing the huge queues during the early morning rush.