Puddle Jumper 2
I believe that the point here is that in your case, you are being honest and upfront when there is a real chance of making your destination and giving your passengers choice and involvement in the decision making. The subject of this thread appears to involve deliberate premeditated deception and what you are suggesting does not fall into this category.
I agree that jail is a harsh response. The alternative would perhaps be to fine the Airline a punitive sum if this is possible under the applicable laws. The punishment needs to override the economic benefit to the airline of diverting the flight, otherwise the bean counters will take the fine every time!!!