AIGT you need to differentiate between published minimum experience and what the average successfull lad/lass actually has.
When they run out of applicants with 5000 TT lots of ME piston/turbine command they will look at people with 4000 TT and lots of piston ME command time and less turbine time...then 3000 TT with lots of ME piston command...then 2500 with significant ME piston...then 2000...then 1500 with 500 ME command.
I would suggest airlines are starting to see the 4000TT pilots as the most common new recruit.
500 SE hours? I doubt that will happen in Australia unless pilot demand remains at current levels for 10 more years. Chances of that happening? Remote.
LONG before reaching that point you will see Eastern and Sunnies Dash pilots being pulled in
BIG TIME by QF mainline to crew their widebodies...Something that QF refuses to countenance to date...and/or
VB, J* and Tiger poaching them in enormous numbers.
They
MAY then take pilots with truly minimal experience into Sunnies and Easterns. But the problem will be training such low time pilots as the training captains at Sunnies/Eastern will get truly shat off with being left behind by mainline...something that has happened over and over again at the QF owned regionals...and they will **** off to
VB/KA/CX etc.
I actually think you will never see the scenario that occurrs in the EU play out here in Australia.