It really is a difficult question to answer.....
If you move to the dark side, then your date of upgrade is pretty much fixed, by which I mean, transition then 6 months on line then upgrade, and best guess is approx 10-12 months after start of transition coarse...
I spoke to Airbus fleet management and was advised best to move,,,but and here's the whatsit in the woodpile....there projections are all based on no-one leaving the bus..ie skippers....and no fleet increase..well I think the 346's are nixed but who knows about a couple of 332's or 343's coming at short noitice....no guarantees, and purely guesswork..hey I could be EK manager
I would also bet on a few more guys leaving the top of the list, how many would it take for you to be in the picture....12,20, 50...I believe about 90 have left this year
IF you stay on the bus then there is a chance of change, if the dark side beckons....... you are stuck...
And with EK "training" being what it is, all it would take would be a 3 in your training then who knows

what they would do???
At the end of the day, you play your hand as you see your cards.....go or stay you will still be with EK

...also not sure if they re-bond people. anyone know??
But as I said I was advised to move,as it looks best for command,,if that is true and it's a big if, it will put me on about 4 1/2 years to upgrade.....and yet they still tell people 3 years at interview