Originally Posted by
Gnadenburg
The pilot shortage ( supposed ) abroad will me countered in someway, by airlines basing Australians in Australian, on the poor pay and conditions that have been created locally by
VB, J*, NJS and the like.
This shortage will not be solved anytime soon:
*Global fleet doubles (additional 17,600 units) 2005-2025:
BOEING (pdf) page 6.
*Working population will stall in Australia:
Dept Family & Community Services
Boeing was quoted several months ago in
The Australian (Aviation section) suggesting the global pilot demand over the next 20 years is approx 18,000 per year & current training rate is 5,000. You do the maths.
Yes, airline managements have played a good game with the hand they were dealt until now, however they cannot create pilots out of thin air. They cannot hold back the tide, no matter what IR laws are drafted in their favour. Not even well intentioned governments can change demographics.
The short term will be challenging for those alrealy deeply involved in the industry. Longer term, however someone is going to have to spend a Sh#tload of money to train enough crew just to replace those retiring, let alone expansion.
Over the last 10 years I suspect the "dream" that was aviation has been replaced by the "dream" that is Macquarie Bank
et al as corporate pay heads for the stratosphere
.