OK-
No-one knows the future, nothing is impossible and MSE might survive.
But it probably won't.
With that in mind I would like to introduce a NEW TOPIC!!!
"MANSTON'S IMPACT ON GENERAL AVIATION"
Environmental issues are high profile at the moment. Aviation is right at the centre of the debate, and is being closely scrutinised.
For those of us who rely on a credible air travel sector for our livelihoods, it is essential that aviation runs a tight ship (if you'll pardon the mixed metaphor)
Politicians, journalists, and schoolchildren are all talking about "saving the planet". Schoolchildren in particular have more environmental awareness in their short lives, than I have ever had in my 50 plus years - and children are the potential aviation customers of the future.
It is essential that aviation acts responsibly, and does not develop a negative public image.
So where does an airport like Manston fit in?
Not very well I'm afraid.
Airlines and aiports will need to demontrate that they are self-supporting and necessary, and that there is a realistic demand for their services.
An airport such as STN obviously has that credibility - it is bursting at the seams and needs to expand.
Manston, on the other hand is wasting a huge amount of private and public money trying, and failing, to create a demand where none exists. There is only a skeleton demand for freight, and the pax demographic is too fragmented to be viable. The environmental
PR error is compounded by the suggestion that people and freight should travel hundreds of miles by road to reach MSE. In doing these things, Manston could threaten the reputation of the whole industry. This is not the carefree 1980's - and I do not believe aviation's reputation can afford a "wayward child" like MSE in 2006.
Imagine a company and a local coucil persuading people to use their cars for extra journeys they were not interested in making - and financing it as well! The media outcry would be colossal, yet this is essentially what goes on at MSE.
Politicians are extremely media concious, and it only takes a handful of journalists to put the microscope on such goings-on to cause the usual Westminster over-reaction - Draconian laws and restrictions threatening huge numbers of aviation careers.
Unfortunately, the competitive market economy works against the industry in this situation, because the most intelligent approach would be for companies to co-operate in working out which airports are go, and which are no-go.
Once LYX gets going (a more credible pax airport), the mixture of over-capacity in this region and bad
PR could be a nightmare, and could have far reaching consequences.
There IS scope for expansion in aviation, but reckless over-expansion could be a disaster. These are uncertain times, and the industry needs to be careful.
Manston is already a joke among business travellers.
If people are not careful, it could turn out to be aviation's Nemesis.