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Old 27th September 2006 | 21:56
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john_tullamarine
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: ATPL
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From: various places .....
I dont recall any stories of the 707, 727, DC-9 days of old finding themselves in similar situations

.. the history books say otherwise - there has been the odd case of aircraft landing on fumes and having engine(s) flame out during the rollout - I can recall a few such events from my time in Oz airlines. [ days of old, indeed .. but these were "real" aeroplanes ..]

The situation in Oz (and, I have no doubt, in many other countries) is that several airports can be a tad unpredictable with fog and it is a little disconcerting to be on base/final and watch the vis disappear rapidly as the OAT drops that last fraction of a degree .. particularly when the forecast didn't give the true story. Sometimes the commander has made a perfectly reasonable call on fuel and, having proceeded past the last PSD, finds Mother Nature conspiring against him/her. Invariably it is easy to criticise from the comfort of one's armchair a week or so later on .. but the reality is that the commander has to assess and make the call .. very occasionally that call, subsequently, may be seen to be suboptimal ...

For the pilot/operator should one

(a) be conservative and always carry a fat contingency allowance ? Means you leave passengers and freight behind sometimes and push down profits overall.

(b) be realistic in systems planning with a sensible and appropriate attention to risk assessment and control ? This infers that pilots place a reasonable level of trust in the airline's systems. Indeed, it is a lemma that different airlines will have slightly different ways of tackling the problem. It follows, also, that the Regulator must maintain an appropriate oversight of those systems and practices.

(c) leave it to the pilot's tactical planning decision making so that one doesn't need a system planning novel to cover all the ins and outs ? A slightly different gameplan sees (b) and (c) working in concert.

(d) hide one's head in the sand and hope the occasionally inevitable doesn't happen ?


May I be so bold as to suggest that (a) and (d) are a bit outmoded and/or unacceptable ?

If one can propose that the middle field be adopted, then I think that would be the approach seen generally in the Industry.

However, as with life generally, it is not a matter of guarantees; rather probabilities. There are risks associated with every strategy .. the secret is getting a good mix of benefit/risk. After the event Monday morning quarterbacking is fine for refining the system and protocols but none of us has that elusive crystal ball which allows us to get it totally "right" in advance.
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