Fog in Perth (Part 2)
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.. a real aeroplane .. ah, but you also could beat the air into abject submission with your machine, Brian... and I suspect that you assign far too much science to the art of forecasting. Perhaps we should catch up at Jack's for a beer to debate the relative merits of rotary and fixed ...
.. but if the forecast is wrong ? again a matter of risk management and local knowledge. Consistent with justifiable decision processes, the sensible commander will adopt a defensible level of conservatism .. I don't recall many flights to PER with the slightest hint of fog wherein we didn't have a very heightened level of interest in the TAF and we invariably carried enough to go somewhere sensible consistent with payload .. mind you, the Electra was good as we could carry the other side of the planet as an alternate .. the DC9 boys had more than a few anxious moments though ...
I'm all for manipulative skills which include sim work in very low vis .. I routinely practised 50ft/125m single pilot hand flown raw data figure-8 1500 ft touch and go ILS's. Great fun but tiring after an hour or so. That at least gives one a fighting chance if the situation deteriorates to the point of the ridiculous. However, the problem in the real world is ILS integrity near the ground, time to assess at breakout, whether one has enough visual cues to confirm that the bird is, indeed, in the right spot or not, etc. Sure it's fine to risk the blind landing if one is caught out and there is no realistic alternative option .. but only as a serious emergency .. the risk analysis doesn't justify it in other conditions for routine civil operations.
.. but if the forecast is wrong ? again a matter of risk management and local knowledge. Consistent with justifiable decision processes, the sensible commander will adopt a defensible level of conservatism .. I don't recall many flights to PER with the slightest hint of fog wherein we didn't have a very heightened level of interest in the TAF and we invariably carried enough to go somewhere sensible consistent with payload .. mind you, the Electra was good as we could carry the other side of the planet as an alternate .. the DC9 boys had more than a few anxious moments though ...
I'm all for manipulative skills which include sim work in very low vis .. I routinely practised 50ft/125m single pilot hand flown raw data figure-8 1500 ft touch and go ILS's. Great fun but tiring after an hour or so. That at least gives one a fighting chance if the situation deteriorates to the point of the ridiculous. However, the problem in the real world is ILS integrity near the ground, time to assess at breakout, whether one has enough visual cues to confirm that the bird is, indeed, in the right spot or not, etc. Sure it's fine to risk the blind landing if one is caught out and there is no realistic alternative option .. but only as a serious emergency .. the risk analysis doesn't justify it in other conditions for routine civil operations.
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Quote:
The QF Captain of the A330 demonstrated just why he is that.
His options were:
1. Auto landing on a Cat I ILS runway.
2. Ditching.
3. Flying around until fuel exhaustion results in a forced (read: crash) landing.
How about:-
4. Carry enough fuel to get to an alternate, and divert there instead.....
Yes I agree with option 4! ATSB records show an A330 landed in SYD with auto pilot in low vis after a few attempts with only minutes of fuel left on board! Captain material? I think not! These guys wanna play games maybe they should think about QF1 B747-438ER VH-OJH
The QF Captain of the A330 demonstrated just why he is that.
His options were:
1. Auto landing on a Cat I ILS runway.
2. Ditching.
3. Flying around until fuel exhaustion results in a forced (read: crash) landing.
How about:-
4. Carry enough fuel to get to an alternate, and divert there instead.....
Yes I agree with option 4! ATSB records show an A330 landed in SYD with auto pilot in low vis after a few attempts with only minutes of fuel left on board! Captain material? I think not! These guys wanna play games maybe they should think about QF1 B747-438ER VH-OJH
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Perth.
Having operated there many times years ago, in the good 'ole B707, we always (without exception) had diversion fuel to Learmouth plus one additional hour.
No exceptions.
And, yes, I diverted twice, due to fog at PER.
Extra fuel in your back pocket (so to speak) is part and parcel of the six P's.
Prior
Planning
Prevents
Pi**
Poor
Performance
Having only absolute minimum fuel overhead PER is many times just asking for trouble.
The company I worked for knew this.
I knew this...so it didn't happen.
End of story.
Additionally, planning a flight, any flight, on statistical averages of the weather, is folly in the extreme.
Having operated there many times years ago, in the good 'ole B707, we always (without exception) had diversion fuel to Learmouth plus one additional hour.
No exceptions.
And, yes, I diverted twice, due to fog at PER.
Extra fuel in your back pocket (so to speak) is part and parcel of the six P's.
Prior
Planning
Prevents
Pi**
Poor
Performance
Having only absolute minimum fuel overhead PER is many times just asking for trouble.
The company I worked for knew this.
I knew this...so it didn't happen.
End of story.
Additionally, planning a flight, any flight, on statistical averages of the weather, is folly in the extreme.
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This subject caught my eye since my last flight was to Perth last week, the weather conditions were not that good for me as well.
Quote from ShockWave.
"Factors:
Were they let down by inaccurate, untimely Met services?
Were they pressured into flying with min fuel by a discrimatory fuel monitoring policy?
Were they let down by a flawed fuel policy?
Was there any point that this event could have been avoided enroute?
Were there any other factors like fatigue involved"
Met forecasts for PER by my experience are not the most accurate and I dare say this was the case in this instance.
There is no pressure on Captains who decide to carry extra fuel, in my 10 years in the LHS at QF I've never been questioned about my additional fuel.
Flawed policy.........I don't think so. Any policy, including ones with island/remote reserve or full alternate are subject to the odd hickup. I remember when I flew in the UK landing at LHR at 1am with about 20mins of fuel, both my destination and any alternates I could use went out in unforecast fog.
Avoided enroute.........although I was not there at the time I doubt it, the company policy is that you only proceed past DPA (PNR) if the weather is still forecast above Alternate criteria, or carry the appropriate holding fuel for tempo/inter below.
Fatigue..............since I was not there I cannot comment.
Most of us treat PER with respect due to its weather and the distance involved from suitable alternates.
Quote from ShockWave.
"Factors:
Were they let down by inaccurate, untimely Met services?
Were they pressured into flying with min fuel by a discrimatory fuel monitoring policy?
Were they let down by a flawed fuel policy?
Was there any point that this event could have been avoided enroute?
Were there any other factors like fatigue involved"
Met forecasts for PER by my experience are not the most accurate and I dare say this was the case in this instance.
There is no pressure on Captains who decide to carry extra fuel, in my 10 years in the LHS at QF I've never been questioned about my additional fuel.
Flawed policy.........I don't think so. Any policy, including ones with island/remote reserve or full alternate are subject to the odd hickup. I remember when I flew in the UK landing at LHR at 1am with about 20mins of fuel, both my destination and any alternates I could use went out in unforecast fog.
Avoided enroute.........although I was not there at the time I doubt it, the company policy is that you only proceed past DPA (PNR) if the weather is still forecast above Alternate criteria, or carry the appropriate holding fuel for tempo/inter below.
Fatigue..............since I was not there I cannot comment.
Most of us treat PER with respect due to its weather and the distance involved from suitable alternates.
