RSOman,
I am not sure that I catch your logic. Full fare Y class, which is flexible, is considerably more expensive than than the non-refundable type. If they sold F tickets, non-refundable at the same percentage discount as they operate in Y class, I would say "hell yes !, give me more". As it is, with fares as they stand, my 90kg carcass is equivalent in average fare to 450kg's down the back, as well as 30kg of baggage vs. 110kg down the back. I would also imagine that the real estate takes up a little less space too, but real estate doesn't use 5x more fuel, check in time, baggage handlers, ticketing agents etc etc.
777 from Beijing has 12 seats in first, maybe +/-60 in business and probably 250+ in economy. Overbooking by 1 seat in First has an 8.33% chance of an upset, if I asked you to go for an operation in hospital which had an 8.33% chance of dying, would you be keen to try the odds? The same percentage conservatively applied to business and economy would have the airline looking to re-book 5 business pax and 21 economy pax alternative flights on every 777 service.
I would think that smart policy would be as follows;
1. Overbook economy by 5-10 seats, from the 250+ there are bound to be tourists or similar who would enjoy an extra night at destination.
2. Overbook business by 2-3 seats, on the offchance that everyone turns up see point 3.
3.
Underbook first by 2 seats, then if everyone turns up for business, and one first passenger (8.33% of the load) fails to show, you can upgrade 3 long term gold card pax as a goodwill gesture (rather than downgrading or offloading 3 business pax to try another airlines comparative service). As a 7 year LH Senator and 5 year SQ Solitaire I can confirm that I have been on the receipt of numerous upgrades for that very reason, indeed LH issues Senators an upgrade voucher per 50,000 miles flown, which can, as one option, be used at the gate if space is available. If on the offchance, the forecasts are perfect, then a little exclusivity with some empty seats in First does not go amiss in generating that vote winning ambience that keeps customers coming back. Except on BA of course when they will be quickly filled with staff travel, captains wife, cabin crews boy/girlfriends etc.
Once again, Beijing, one service a day, few other options, especially on a Friday, taking an 8.33% chance of a serious upset of a premium passenger is a bit reckless imho
