BScaler and Five Green:
First, Commawnder BScaler: Thanks for the clarification. You and I are in agreement on this point.
However, any call to arms for the pilot group to reject Cos 07, and for the AOA to renegotiate it must also include the recognition of the AOA's impotence and ineptitude. (Here's where The Management stands and applauds.
)
I'm not really in the mood to go on an AOA bashing rant today. But suffice it to say that I'm unimpressed. Most AOA members tell me that their main reason for membership is that it's a "get out of jail free" card should they become incarcerated in a foreign country after an aircraft accident or incident. I've not yet heard a pilot say they joined the AOA for the sake of unity, or to improve the lot of the Cathay pilots' lives, or to protect their job. I think everyone knows the AOA can't (or won't) do any of that. Frankly, I'm a little skeptical that the AOA/IFALPA could get a pilot out of jail!
The divisions within the pilot group are a creation of the AOA. Those divisions should be a source of extreme embarrasment for the Cathay pilot group. But nobody seems terribly bothered by the mishmash of conditions of service that govern the industrial lives of different members of the group.
(More applause by The Management
)
Uh oh. I think that bordered on a rant. Sorry.
At any rate, thanks for the brotherly thoughts on the pay rates. Like I said, we're in agreement on this subject.
Commawnder Five Green:
Thanks very much for taking the time to do the math(s?)
.
Language barriers notwithstanding, I think we might be onto something. Your reply was exactly the type of response I hoped to elicit. Allow me to briefly clarify my assumptions and method (such as it is).
First, because the current Cos requires 3 years on the freighter after qualification, I assumed transition to passenger F/O pay in year 5 (that is, the first full 4 years on freighter pay). This was partly out of laziness, but also partly out of recognition that there may be a delay between the bidding moratorium and the availability of a vacancy.
Second, because of my age (which is NOT 5, despite my pprune profile), I ran the numbers out to 13 years - not 8. This may explain the differences in our results.
Third, I'm in "pay year 1". So my assumptions only considered transitioning to Cos 07 beginning in pay year 2 - not pay year 8.
Maybe it's easier just to show you my scenarios. I've broken up my spreadsheet to give a side-by side comparison. Sorry about the formatting. After several attempts I couldn't get it to look any better than it does.
The asterisks by the Cos 99 column indicate the year of transition to passenger pay. First scenario: F/O for life. As you can see, Cos 07 costs me (or a similarly situated pilot) almost $17K. Again, keep in mind the present value of money as the higher rates are enjoyed early. If you don't like the present valuation, call it an $18,000 loss.
Cos 99 Cos 07
No Upgrade No Upgrade
Year
1 63504 63504
2 69504 110820
3 75504 113040
4 81000 115296
5 126840 * 117600
6 129240 * 119952
7 131640 * 119952
8 133680 * 119952
9 135840 * 119952
10 137760 * 119952
11 137760 * 119952
12 137760 * 119952
13 137760 * 119952
Total 1497792 1479876
Difference -17916
Scenario 2: Upgrade to Commawnd in year 5. For the Cos 99 numbers, I assumed freighter pay until year 9. Cos 07 pays nearly $90K more (again, considering the value of early higher pay rates, it's actually more).
Cos 99 Cos 07
Upgrade in yr 5 Upgrade in yr 5
Year
1 63504 63504
2 69504 110820
3 75504 113040
4 81000 115296
5 87036 117600
6 123996 155004
7 126480 158100
8 129012 161268
9 198120 * 164484
10 199560 * 167772
11 201000 * 171132
12 202320 * 174552
13 203640 * 178044
Total 1760676 1850616
Difference 89940
Scenario #3: Upgrade in year 3 (with recent Commawnd failure rates of 100%, I know this is a reach, but a fellah can dream, right?). Again, for Cos 99 I assumed transitioning to passenger Capt. pay at year 9. Cos 07 wins by nearly $100K - again, not including the "present value" discussion.
Cos 99 Cos 07
Upgrade in yr 3 Upgrade in yr 3
Year
1 63504 63504
2 69504 110820
3 75504 113040
4 123996 155004
5 126480 158100
6 129012 161268
7 131592 164484
8 134220 167772
9 203640 * 171132
10 204960 * 174552
11 206280 * 178044
12 207600 * 181608
13 208800 * 185244
Total 1885092 1984572
Difference 99480
If you've actually stayed awake to this point, thanks very much for looking at this. As I said before, I think Cos 07 is fait accompli. I won't be voting for, or against it. I don't believe discussions about voting on it are at all relevant. Airline managements are clever enough to "do the math" on votes before even entering a tentative agreement with unions, knowing exactly what it takes to obtain a passing vote. And Cathay management is more shrewd than most. (Applause again by The Management
)
For me, the discussion is one of strict economics. Is "this" worth more than "that", or vice versa? Your input is appreciated. And your mileage may vary...
baseddude