First: I have had family in ZA for 180 years, family and school friends still live there (PTA + CPT) and I visit regularly. I lived in Pretoria from ages 9~18. Next trip, this October.
Second: This statement is going to be unpopular ...
The violence cannot be fixed by the government.
The violence cannot be fixed by the ANC.
The violence cannot be fixed by anyone.
I have thought for some ten years that: the quiet transition from the old to the new, that was effected in the early 1990s by Frederick de Klerk and Nelson Mandela, was utterly brilliant but that it has repercussions that will be reaped for years to come. Ultimately, that historic quiet transition of regime will be very noisy.
Mankind is not renowned for doing things quietly. One simple example: A large group of citizens in North America decided that they wanted independence from the UK (a not unreasonable choice!), so they fought a war to do so. The American Revolutionary War (1775–1783), also known as the American War of Independence. Less than a hundred years later, they fought a Civil War (1861–1865) and only then could they start to find their own feet. Most new countries need a Civil War to bring a balance.
Humans tend only to learn through pain and South Africa did not have that 'big pain'. Instead, they have had - and are having - a long, low level civil war 'lots of small pain'. There are many words written about the theme of 'a blood price'. That is to say, that something acheived with blood will have a certain value and, until that price is paid, then value will not be given to it. It is my suggestion that South Africa has yet to reach that point. Further, that that point is some considerable way off.
If the change of regime had been made with a civil war (as was predicted by so many for so long) then the country would not, now, be experiencing this local violence, for the blood price would have already been paid. The blood would have been let and the anger drained away with it. But it wasn't and so the blood is now being let, albeit in a different way.
It does not count whether the blood is let from white or black, there is no common experience of pain and blood loss for the different racial groups to share. Yes, of course, there is loss of blood and both experience it - but it is not yet large enough for it to have a true common experience.
I consider that the main reason the conflict in Northern Ireland has subsided is that the blood price has been paid and people have seen that it has got nowhere. Other factors are in play, of course. Conversely, in Israel and Lebanon, the blood price has yet to be reached and nothing can stop it. The UN or other groups are powerless - until the blood has been shed. there are countless other examples around the world in the world, past and present.
So ... I think that nothing will change, despite good efforts by many (and I applaud all and every effort). I think that the low level of violence almost 'must' take place, if South Africa is to reach stability. This low level violence may, eventually, break out into a high level - we shall have to see. But ... nothing can stop the violence. How long? If it continues at this low level, another 20 years at the very least.