Will they fly??
The flood of newly qualified cpl's are an embarssment to Australian aviation. There are a lot of keen, capable young people who have geat enthusiasm, and potential, who have paid a lot of money to flying schools, and done a lot of work to get where they are.
Unfortunately there are hardly any jobs for them today, and this has been the case for at least two decades, or more.
Only a few have been able to get airline jobs and many quit trying after a few months or a few years, when they realise for themselves what the facts actually are. Quite a few eventually get a job in GA,(in the first two years) flying mainly piston singles, and light twins after a few years. Some never get that first job. Some go on to airlines (about 5%) after GA flying for up to 10 years.
There are a few good jobs in GA, and some pilots make a good living flying GA aircraft for life, usually in the outback. And they usually have special skills, or attitudes that others do not have. (like low level survey, Chief pilot, lame/pilot, maintenance controller, HAMic or career bush pilot etc.) Those who talk about "clapped out Cessnas" and things like that do not get far. If it is "clapped out" you should not be flying it, and should not be there. A negative attitude is does not help anyone, and is not welcomed by aviators anywhere.
Going to outback Australia is usually a huge culture shock for most city dwellers, and going from an outback town to an aboriginal community in the back of beyond (like 700 km from the nearest town) is more so. Civilisation stops at the blue mountains. This is where most of Australias flying takes place. The roads are not built yet.
Most of the flying out here is done in piston egined aircraft. Only the Govt financed ones, or the gold mines have turboprops.We see a bizjet about once a year, and they do not go beyond the major centres.
The flood of newbie pilots has encouraged some city flying schools to bring shiny,crosshired, newly painted, 30 year old aircraft to outback towns, so they can sell training, and ICUS to young hopefuls in the cities. So we now get a continual turnover of beginners, looking for jobs, working for nothing, and undercutting the career GA pilots. So there are not so many worthwhile GA jobs any more. Some of the lesser operators are just as ruthless as the pilots and they set out to exploit one another. So operators no longer pay for endorsements as the pilot will leave soon, because he never wanted to be there. in the first place.This is sad. The pilots, operators (some of them) and the travelling public deserve better than this.
Newly qualified cpl's are usually out of their depth for the first year of outback flying (I had four bent nose locker doors to prove it. All bent when they were left unlatched by commercial pilots in their first year) and you have to look after them. One pilot had the rear door of a C206 come open in flight and twist the fuselage. He did not report it. He is now a training captain with an airline in Australia.
The accident figures show that most of the accidents happen to inexperienced pilots. So, to provide a safe, reliable service to people of the outback, you need a mix of experienced, and low time pilots. Responsible people who want to be there, and will work to make things better and safer. People who have a wealth of essential local knowledge. People who plan to still be there next year. Not a continual turnover of transient GPS followers.
I usually make myself most unpopular with post like this, because there are a lot of pretenders out there who do not want to acknowledge the facts as they are.
And it is not just GA. Some of the airlines are making money with a continual turnover of new FO,s who do not get the opportunity to continue on.
I believe the Multi crew licence is highly desirable, as the airline wannabies will be heading for the airlines, and not having to spend time in GA, where they do not want to be.
I feel sorry for the young pilots who have such uncertainty, and ashamed of the flying schools that are exploiting them.