RonO,
I don't know about flaming pants or half truths, but I'm merely quoting JSF figures from Defence Analysis, which is usually pretty rigorous, though using £ when they presumably meant dollars (as I repeated in one of my paragraphs) was poor.
That section should presumably read: "JSF procurement (exclusive of the SDD phase and long-term support) quoted at $10-billion for 150 aircraft. That was a $66.67-million UPC in 2002, with an adjusted UPC growth to $75.75 m in 2003, $90.15 m in 2004 and $104.6 m in 2005.
But the bottom line is that the Typhoon costs about £45-49 m today, and the JSF looks likely to cost
US £56 m apiece, plus R&D, plus the £600 m of 'non SDD' spending identified by the NAO.
As I said. Nowhere did I suggest a figure of $200 m.
I don't care what Lockheed are predicting as a price at the moment. Unless and until they offer a guarantee or an absolute ceiling or cap it's meaningless. Typhoon has had some cost escalation problems, and I doubt that they're over. The total UK programme has already increased in cost by 14% over the past 15 years. That's pretty disgraceful. But it's at least better than JSF, whose total programme costs have increased 23% in just five years (2001-2005), and whose development phase costs rose by a staggering 81%! Nor has Lockheed's record on keeping to cost been impressive on F-22, or indeed on any of its recent programmes.
EF GmbH can tell a customer what a Typhoon will cost, and can guarantee that cost, which will be a tad higher than the partner nations pay (and three nations agree what they pay, and Britain did too, until the 2005 MPR). Lockheed cannot and will not.
Whose cost and price data is likely to be more reliable and more stable?
When it comes to Typhoon costs you pull one number out, while I'm citing several sources. Ditto JSF, you just parrot Lockheed's number (disputed by the GAO), while I have several numbers that "I'm pulling out of my ass."
If you're running the risk of being thought an idiot it will be for your spelling (heartly, rationale, loose etc.) and for your blind, unquestioning acceptance of the nonsense put out by Lockmart's
PR department. I wonder what you think I've said that counts as "lies, distortions and half truths".