The oil shocks of the 70’s were as a result of political forces applying pressure on western governments, not as a result of supply problems.
The current situation is a combination of both. Some observers believe that KSR will eventually fall to non western compliant extremist (Bedouins) that would not hesitate to turn the taps off to western consumers. Unfortunately, the “war on terror”could easily accelerate such a process. Obviously, the government of Venezuela will not step in to assist with fulfilling the energy demands of the US, unlike during the last great oil fiasco.
Also, there is huge concern that choke points such as the Straits of Hormuz and the Malacca Straits will be blocked by terrorist activity making it nearly impossible to feed energy dependant markets such as China, Japan and the US.
Far Canard is correct – the downstream costs of heavy oil are far greater than lighter oil such as light sweet crude from the ME. The US and EU are clearly shaping foreign policies to ensure greater access to light sweet crude. Nearly every battlefield on the planet (now and in the future) is linked in some way to the fact that oil consumers are fully aware that oil is running out and natural gas will not fully satisfy our current demands. The “war on terror” is little more than a smoke screen for a different agenda as key players such as Britain, America, Germany, France and Japan scramble to annex or control geopolitically important countries such as Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, Indonesia, India, Iraq, Israel, Georgia, Azerbaijan, Colombia and others in order to soften the impact of the eventual decline of the oil age.