The Good Oil
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The Good Oil
There are some amongst us that think the world has reached peak oil production. Put another way – we are ˝ way through and the oil producing regions are in terminal decay. Of course this might not be so and we may have more time to drive those SUVs and Hummers. The big problem is that the first half of the oil was the easiest to collect. The second half is tied up in oil sands and oil wells that require more effort and therefore cost to extract. There is no doubt that there is still plenty of oil out there but at what price?
I wonder if the cost cutting measures being put forward by most airlines now is the tip of the iceberg. What I fly consumes plenty of fuel and I can only hope for the best. The best would be a major oil discovery larger than the total oil reserves contained in the Middle East.
Some figures for you:
The world uses 23,000,000,000 barrels of oil per year
It currently consumes 4 barrels for every 1 it finds.
I wonder if the cost cutting measures being put forward by most airlines now is the tip of the iceberg. What I fly consumes plenty of fuel and I can only hope for the best. The best would be a major oil discovery larger than the total oil reserves contained in the Middle East.
Some figures for you:
The world uses 23,000,000,000 barrels of oil per year
It currently consumes 4 barrels for every 1 it finds.
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The first oil shock in the 70's proposed a similiar doomsday day scenario which predicted that we would have run out of oil by now.
I don't know what the future hold but there is plenty of other energy sources available such as extremely large gas and coal fields, plenty of uranium, improved batterries and electric motors.Biodiesal and ethanol fuel are virtually inexhaustable to a finite quantity.
Obviously aviation is heavily reliant on oil but there is no reason that other industries (eg motor cars) couldn't convert to another energy source if the cost became prohibitive. I don't believe there is any reason why aircraft engines couldn't be converted to run on biodiesal and motor cars run on electric motors if we ever run out of oil(which won't be for another 50 yrs at least-thats if technology doesn't kick in).
Its really not that big a deal. Sure it will mean quite a few changes but the world will still turn.
I don't know what the future hold but there is plenty of other energy sources available such as extremely large gas and coal fields, plenty of uranium, improved batterries and electric motors.Biodiesal and ethanol fuel are virtually inexhaustable to a finite quantity.
Obviously aviation is heavily reliant on oil but there is no reason that other industries (eg motor cars) couldn't convert to another energy source if the cost became prohibitive. I don't believe there is any reason why aircraft engines couldn't be converted to run on biodiesal and motor cars run on electric motors if we ever run out of oil(which won't be for another 50 yrs at least-thats if technology doesn't kick in).
Its really not that big a deal. Sure it will mean quite a few changes but the world will still turn.
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There are two issues with oil. The first one deals with supply / demand and where the price is going. The futures market for oil has recently hit $100 USD per barrel. The second is what to replace it with. If you do some reading you will find it is not as simple as you think.
Bring on the nukes and coal fired power stations. I want my electric car to do 0-100Km/hr in 5secs and top out at 200Km/hr!!!
Bring on the nukes and coal fired power stations. I want my electric car to do 0-100Km/hr in 5secs and top out at 200Km/hr!!!
Far Canard - I guess you're looking for this then: A new breed of high performance electric car
the Tango can accelerate from zero to 150 mph in one gear. It accelerates from zero to 60 mph in four seconds, which makes it faster than most exotica you can buy off the showroom floor such as the Dodge Viper, Porsche Carrera GT or Ferrari F50 and twice as quick over a short distance as most road inhabitants. It will also stop the clocks at 12 seconds dead for a quarter mile so at all legal road-going speeds, the Tango reigns supreme over all four wheelers though it falls short of the fastest sports motorcycles
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neccessity is the Mother of all invention..
when oil get more and more expensive and prohibitive to use, there will be other sources and technologies developed to replace it. examples given above are a few slowly emerging now, Biodiesel, made from vegetable oil ,fertile farming lands will become very sought after property!!! ethanol, made from Sugar Cane! we have Million of Acres of the stuff growing in Oz. im sure with a relativly small development fund motor companies will produce Ethanol powered vehicles equal to todays performance
i also think that in the medium future, Nuclear energy will see a resurgence now technolgy has improved vastly since the 60's and 70's when most reactors were built. and im sure RR will have plans somewhere for ethanol powered turbines..
the only sufferers from the new fuel economy or renewable fuels from plant products, will be the deserts of the middle east..
and there is no way in hell i would drive something looking like that at speeds above 60Mph! it wouldnt be very efficient at speeds above about 60mph looking like that!
when oil get more and more expensive and prohibitive to use, there will be other sources and technologies developed to replace it. examples given above are a few slowly emerging now, Biodiesel, made from vegetable oil ,fertile farming lands will become very sought after property!!! ethanol, made from Sugar Cane! we have Million of Acres of the stuff growing in Oz. im sure with a relativly small development fund motor companies will produce Ethanol powered vehicles equal to todays performance
i also think that in the medium future, Nuclear energy will see a resurgence now technolgy has improved vastly since the 60's and 70's when most reactors were built. and im sure RR will have plans somewhere for ethanol powered turbines..
the only sufferers from the new fuel economy or renewable fuels from plant products, will be the deserts of the middle east..
and there is no way in hell i would drive something looking like that at speeds above 60Mph! it wouldnt be very efficient at speeds above about 60mph looking like that!
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Ethanol has fantastic anti-knock properties but a litre of it doesn't go far, intrigued at how many acres of whatever would be needed to replace or supplement 23 billion barrels a year, none of the synthetic stuff (including coal gasification etc.) comes cheap. I dont think we are about to run out but we'd better get used to paying for it.
An old boss once said fuel was the cheapest thing that went into his aircraft, maybe not for much longer.
An old boss once said fuel was the cheapest thing that went into his aircraft, maybe not for much longer.
How about this - nuclear powerplants provide the energy to produce the hydrogen for fuel cells that run the cars and such - would that work?
No more fossil fuels to find, and no more greenhouse gases, just a ****load of radioactive waste to get rid of, I guess.
No more fossil fuels to find, and no more greenhouse gases, just a ****load of radioactive waste to get rid of, I guess.
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Is PO approaching.
US invades several nations on account of oil – Iraq and Afghanistan.
Colombia is now largest recipient of US weapons in order to fight a possible proxy war against oil rich Venezuela.
Royal Dutch Shell downwardly revise their estimates of known reserves 4 times in 12 months.
Oil rich (and OPEC influential) Iran is in the gun sights because of supposed nuke program.
NATO disguises its bombing of The Balkans as humanitarian in order to build military bases to protect one of the worlds largest pipeline projects.
The US funds a rose revolution in Georgia in order to remove a Moscow friendly leader that was lobbying Putin to give management rights for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to Russian companies.
The US builds military bases in the Caucusses of Russia within range of Baku
China triples it fleet of submarines in the western pacific and builds military bases in Pakistan to provide influence in the gulf oil states.
I think PO has something to do with it.
US invades several nations on account of oil – Iraq and Afghanistan.
Colombia is now largest recipient of US weapons in order to fight a possible proxy war against oil rich Venezuela.
Royal Dutch Shell downwardly revise their estimates of known reserves 4 times in 12 months.
Oil rich (and OPEC influential) Iran is in the gun sights because of supposed nuke program.
NATO disguises its bombing of The Balkans as humanitarian in order to build military bases to protect one of the worlds largest pipeline projects.
The US funds a rose revolution in Georgia in order to remove a Moscow friendly leader that was lobbying Putin to give management rights for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline to Russian companies.
The US builds military bases in the Caucusses of Russia within range of Baku
China triples it fleet of submarines in the western pacific and builds military bases in Pakistan to provide influence in the gulf oil states.
I think PO has something to do with it.
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Messrs Utah and Canard,
What escapes me is why you need your car to get to 150 in x secs and do a top speed of 200.
I got pinged for doing 83 in lane 4 (ie. right down the centre) over the harbour bridge at 02.30 when the only cars on the whole span were me & PC Plod, then not long after for doing 75 on that nice long hill from Rose Bay down into Double Bay on New South Head Rd, again late at night with sod-all traffic around (and none conflicting). Harsh, I thought, in both cases (as someone who has done advanced driver training and in a pretty well equipped car) but fair cops nonetheless. Learnt my lesson.
So... We're not allowed to do more than the limit, there's usually not much need for doing more than the limit and those of us who aren't fast-jet knucks generally aren't equipped to handle a 1.5T weapon at much over the limit.
So if an electric or biofuel car can get me to 100km in 9 secs (as my 318i used to do) and can cruise happily at 110-115 (with the odd passing burst to 130), then why do I need it to go to 200?
What escapes me is why you need your car to get to 150 in x secs and do a top speed of 200.
I got pinged for doing 83 in lane 4 (ie. right down the centre) over the harbour bridge at 02.30 when the only cars on the whole span were me & PC Plod, then not long after for doing 75 on that nice long hill from Rose Bay down into Double Bay on New South Head Rd, again late at night with sod-all traffic around (and none conflicting). Harsh, I thought, in both cases (as someone who has done advanced driver training and in a pretty well equipped car) but fair cops nonetheless. Learnt my lesson.
So... We're not allowed to do more than the limit, there's usually not much need for doing more than the limit and those of us who aren't fast-jet knucks generally aren't equipped to handle a 1.5T weapon at much over the limit.
So if an electric or biofuel car can get me to 100km in 9 secs (as my 318i used to do) and can cruise happily at 110-115 (with the odd passing burst to 130), then why do I need it to go to 200?
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"Bring on the nukes and coal fired power stations. I want my electric car to do 0-100Km/hr in 5secs and top out at 200Km/hr!!!"
It was a tongue in cheek comment. An attempt to show just how stupid we are by wasting fossil fuels on things like SUVs and Hummers. To point out that if we go electric then people will still want their extravagant desires. The reality that we will need plenty of nuclear power stations.
The thing about oil is it is very useful when you want to make petro-chemicals, plastics etc. The talk of bio-fuels being the answer does not consider the need for petro-chemical derived fertilisers and insecticides.
Peak oil is coming and nothing is being done to change the terrible wastage of oil. The problem won't get addressed until the wheels fall off the present system. It is most likely going to be a painful transition unless we start seeing some changes to peoples behavior soon.
Bush Junior wants to reduce the oil imports to the US by 75% in the next 20 years. Some geologists say this won't be by choice but by a lack of supply. Interesting times as the time of cheap oil is coming to an end.
It was a tongue in cheek comment. An attempt to show just how stupid we are by wasting fossil fuels on things like SUVs and Hummers. To point out that if we go electric then people will still want their extravagant desires. The reality that we will need plenty of nuclear power stations.
The thing about oil is it is very useful when you want to make petro-chemicals, plastics etc. The talk of bio-fuels being the answer does not consider the need for petro-chemical derived fertilisers and insecticides.
Peak oil is coming and nothing is being done to change the terrible wastage of oil. The problem won't get addressed until the wheels fall off the present system. It is most likely going to be a painful transition unless we start seeing some changes to peoples behavior soon.
Bush Junior wants to reduce the oil imports to the US by 75% in the next 20 years. Some geologists say this won't be by choice but by a lack of supply. Interesting times as the time of cheap oil is coming to an end.
Taildragger - each to their own. e.g why do you drive a 318i when you could drive a hyundai excel/grandeur/sonata...?
To paraphrase you
Personally I have no desire to drive an electric car, especially that one. As those who know me could readily tell you, I have my heart set on a dirty great aussie muscle car - I don't have to commute everyday, so the price of fuel won't worry me too much at all 
To paraphrase you
So if a Hyundai Excel can get me to 100km in 9 secs (as my 318i used to do) and can cruise happily at 110-115 (with the odd passing burst to 130), then why do I need it to go to drive a BMW 318i?
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If the US and friends stopped wasting all the oil they do by galloping into some sort of armed conflict whenever someone sneezes in one of the oil producing regions, maybe the supply would last longer.
Can you imagine how much oil would get used during the mobilisation and demob of these armed forces?
Can you imagine how much oil would get used during the mobilisation and demob of these armed forces?
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The futures market for oil has recently hit $100 USD per barrel.
If Iran open its Euro based oil bourse next month as planned (like Saddam tried to) and the US then attack - the straights of Hormuz may be a dodgy place to sail your tanker through and the long awaited $100 spike may be a reality.
Btw the peak or halfway point you refer to is Hubbert's Peak http://www.hubbertpeak.com/summary.htm
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Johnny,
Fair point. Problem is that at 6'2" I don't fit into a Hyundai and you'll notice I drove a 318, not a 328 or 540 etc. Anyway these days it's the Northern Line.
I do apologise - I see that F. Canard was making a point, one I agree with. You're Right, Johnny, each their own, but it's like free speech (without wanting to go too far down that route!) - with rights (having a car that theoretically can go at 200kmh) come responsibilities (not using that capability). We all have to take a bit of the latter and if limiting me (and y'all) to 150kmh instead of 200 means that we can go at 150 for a few years more before running out of motion lotion, then maybe it's not such a bad trade-off.
But maybe the problem isn't just us and our 200+ kmh-capable Monaros, it's the number of Hyundais piling onto roads in nearby newly-wealthy lands. Sure, they're entitled to wheels as much as anyone, but that's probably having a bigger impact on oil demand than the size of my donk.
But as for your muscle-car ambition - I have just one thing - the Great Australian Man's Dilemma - to say:
Ford or Holden?
Fair point. Problem is that at 6'2" I don't fit into a Hyundai and you'll notice I drove a 318, not a 328 or 540 etc. Anyway these days it's the Northern Line.
I do apologise - I see that F. Canard was making a point, one I agree with. You're Right, Johnny, each their own, but it's like free speech (without wanting to go too far down that route!) - with rights (having a car that theoretically can go at 200kmh) come responsibilities (not using that capability). We all have to take a bit of the latter and if limiting me (and y'all) to 150kmh instead of 200 means that we can go at 150 for a few years more before running out of motion lotion, then maybe it's not such a bad trade-off.
But maybe the problem isn't just us and our 200+ kmh-capable Monaros, it's the number of Hyundais piling onto roads in nearby newly-wealthy lands. Sure, they're entitled to wheels as much as anyone, but that's probably having a bigger impact on oil demand than the size of my donk.
But as for your muscle-car ambition - I have just one thing - the Great Australian Man's Dilemma - to say:
Ford or Holden?
FORD
(one day we'll win Bathurst again.....)
(one day we'll win Bathurst again.....)
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ride a bike and be done with it, 4 Ltrs/100 Km! Just as fugal on fual as a Hybrid, yet still capable of 200 Mph!
just think, everyone on bikes! the road toll will drop, traffic congestion would almost cease to exist, meaning lower emissions still! economies will increase, fuel bills down from $70 per tank in your average car, to just $15.
then again, i cant comment, my other vehicle is a 1.2 ltr, yet consumes the same amount of fuel as a small V8. (but has the same power output, but the car weighs a lot less than your average V8, so its more economical in a sence)
just think, everyone on bikes! the road toll will drop, traffic congestion would almost cease to exist, meaning lower emissions still! economies will increase, fuel bills down from $70 per tank in your average car, to just $15.
then again, i cant comment, my other vehicle is a 1.2 ltr, yet consumes the same amount of fuel as a small V8. (but has the same power output, but the car weighs a lot less than your average V8, so its more economical in a sence)
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3 slips and a gully
I must apologise for stating the futures market was at $100 USD. That contract was for June last year as detailed in the NZ Parliament by the Greens Leader to the Energy Minister.
JEANETTE FITZSIMONS: With reference to that last question, is the Minister aware that Goldman Sachs is predicting a price of over US$100 per barrel shortly and that there has already been a futures trade for US$100 per barrel for June this year?
Hon TREVOR MALLARD: I am not aware of the Goldman Sachs predictions. I am aware of the futures trade, and I have my bike out.
PETER BROWN (NZ First): Is the Minister aware that Green members are going around this country talking about peak oil; and does the Minister share New Zealand First’s view that there is a difference between high-priced oil and peak oil, and that it does a great disservice to New Zealand as a whole for party members to go scaremongering around the country, as Greens members have been?
I must apologise for stating the futures market was at $100 USD. That contract was for June last year as detailed in the NZ Parliament by the Greens Leader to the Energy Minister.
JEANETTE FITZSIMONS: With reference to that last question, is the Minister aware that Goldman Sachs is predicting a price of over US$100 per barrel shortly and that there has already been a futures trade for US$100 per barrel for June this year?
Hon TREVOR MALLARD: I am not aware of the Goldman Sachs predictions. I am aware of the futures trade, and I have my bike out.
PETER BROWN (NZ First): Is the Minister aware that Green members are going around this country talking about peak oil; and does the Minister share New Zealand First’s view that there is a difference between high-priced oil and peak oil, and that it does a great disservice to New Zealand as a whole for party members to go scaremongering around the country, as Greens members have been?
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The 'cost of production' for oil is not a problem, and is miniscule in terms of the price of a barrel. The premise for this thread is false. Other things drive the cost at the pump. Why do you think arabs are so rich? The stuff used to cost about 80c per barrel in the ME (and may, in the near future, rise as high as 2.40usd p.b. ) to pump out. They (enter names of those involved here- govts, oil co's. etc) don't want you to know this of course, as you may start to ask questions.
Grandpa Aerotart
Exactly Ferris....anyone old enough to remember the oil crisis of the late 70s has seen all this doom and gloom carryon before...I well remember buying my first car in 77 and seriously wondering whether there would be any oil left in 20 yrs because of all the hoopla at the time.
Here we are nearly 30 yrs later and my 17 yr old wonders the very same thing.
I am sure oil is a reasonably finite commodity...but after being laid down in the deap earh for MILLIONS of years I find it dificult to believe it is all going to used up in 200.
I suspect the current price per barrel is more about the system suddenly deciding that they want to earn a CRAPLOAD more RFN than any real shortages.
Anyone else notice how oil pb has trippled in the last few years but the price per liter of petrol only went up 10% ish...for god sake it was $1/liter 4 years ago, before the latest drama, and is lately about $1.09 around Brissy....yes it went higher for a while but the sky is hardly falling.
Why is it we accept that everything else we spend money on increases over time but when fuel goes up we freak out and some moron claims the world as we know it is ending...and we believe him?
I cannot remember what I was paying for a lt of fuel back in 77...about 30-40 cents probably...now its $1.09 in Brissy (but 53 cents where I live
)...so it has trippled in 30 yrs...what hasn't?
There are thousands of years worth of natural gas left...we can run our cars on that and hardly even notice the difference...thousands of years worth of coal left...we can make fuel out of that...we can run our cars and probably aeroplanes on bio diesel until hell freezes over.
It is my personal opinion that with oil at the prices we see now previously discovered oil deposits which were capped by the oil companies for a 'rainy day' will come on line left and right....investment that the oil companies were not making at $20 a barrel will be made and supply will ramp up to meet demand...and slowly we'll see oil pb prices dropping back to lower numbers...not what it was before perhaps but not $60-100 pb.
Many more people will look at alternative fuels for their cars...gas, bio diesel, hybrids etc...and demand will drop a little. Govts will bring on line alternative power generating means...atomic.
Communities will, as the Dutch (or is it Norway?) are doing, move to regain control of their electricity supply with wind farms, solar etc etc and be less dependant on big business for their power needs...and sell excess back into the grid....it is happening right now!
And in 10 yrs we'll be wondering what all the hoopla was about.
In time I reckon the biggest benefit of the current oil scare will be less dependance on oil because options are more widely embraced and that will be good for the environment.
We've probably got 100s of years worth of oil left...as more people use alternatives that will stretch out further and further...imagine what would happen if 1/2 the worlds cars were powered by gas, bio diesel and hybrid?
All of a sudden the demand for oil would be so low the price would drop and the stuff would last for ever.
At $60 pb the 'heavy oil' under the east side of South America is practical...trillions of barrels! The fact that it is 'heavy' probably means you can get 2 or 3 times as much petrol out of a barrel as they do out of the runny stuff they get out of the current oil wells.
I point blank refuse to panic....the doom and gloom merchants can kiss my ass!
Here we are nearly 30 yrs later and my 17 yr old wonders the very same thing.
I am sure oil is a reasonably finite commodity...but after being laid down in the deap earh for MILLIONS of years I find it dificult to believe it is all going to used up in 200.
I suspect the current price per barrel is more about the system suddenly deciding that they want to earn a CRAPLOAD more RFN than any real shortages.
Anyone else notice how oil pb has trippled in the last few years but the price per liter of petrol only went up 10% ish...for god sake it was $1/liter 4 years ago, before the latest drama, and is lately about $1.09 around Brissy....yes it went higher for a while but the sky is hardly falling.
Why is it we accept that everything else we spend money on increases over time but when fuel goes up we freak out and some moron claims the world as we know it is ending...and we believe him?
I cannot remember what I was paying for a lt of fuel back in 77...about 30-40 cents probably...now its $1.09 in Brissy (but 53 cents where I live
)...so it has trippled in 30 yrs...what hasn't?There are thousands of years worth of natural gas left...we can run our cars on that and hardly even notice the difference...thousands of years worth of coal left...we can make fuel out of that...we can run our cars and probably aeroplanes on bio diesel until hell freezes over.
It is my personal opinion that with oil at the prices we see now previously discovered oil deposits which were capped by the oil companies for a 'rainy day' will come on line left and right....investment that the oil companies were not making at $20 a barrel will be made and supply will ramp up to meet demand...and slowly we'll see oil pb prices dropping back to lower numbers...not what it was before perhaps but not $60-100 pb.
Many more people will look at alternative fuels for their cars...gas, bio diesel, hybrids etc...and demand will drop a little. Govts will bring on line alternative power generating means...atomic.
Communities will, as the Dutch (or is it Norway?) are doing, move to regain control of their electricity supply with wind farms, solar etc etc and be less dependant on big business for their power needs...and sell excess back into the grid....it is happening right now!
And in 10 yrs we'll be wondering what all the hoopla was about.
In time I reckon the biggest benefit of the current oil scare will be less dependance on oil because options are more widely embraced and that will be good for the environment.
We've probably got 100s of years worth of oil left...as more people use alternatives that will stretch out further and further...imagine what would happen if 1/2 the worlds cars were powered by gas, bio diesel and hybrid?
All of a sudden the demand for oil would be so low the price would drop and the stuff would last for ever.
At $60 pb the 'heavy oil' under the east side of South America is practical...trillions of barrels! The fact that it is 'heavy' probably means you can get 2 or 3 times as much petrol out of a barrel as they do out of the runny stuff they get out of the current oil wells.
I point blank refuse to panic....the doom and gloom merchants can kiss my ass!
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I cannot remember what I was paying for a lt of fuel back in 77...about 30-40 cents probably
in SY. I could fill my bike for just under a dollar A dollar 10 if I pushed the reserves 
So I imagine Brizvegas was somewhat cheaper
Old farts aren't we, eh?