I share the same concerns as Wiz,
I am not in a position to know, and I don't think anyone is at this moment exactly what is going to happen in the coming weeks, months and years. But, from my little corner of the globe things do not look promising.
I would like to offer my prognosis. Please feel free to comment (I would love to hear someone tell me I am completely wrong and remove my fears).
AN goes broke, 1100 odd pilots looking for work as a direct result. QF will obviously be in a position to increase capacity (which it may struggle to do overnight). Even though QF increases capacity, it will not be operating as efficiently as the fleet of QF and AN combined. That is, with QF monopolising 80-90% of the market, there will be inefficiencies because they are not in competition (neglecting
VB). As a result, the QF capacity increase is not equal to the AN capacity loss.
Now, QF will take on some AN pilots to fly the extra planes they operate - giving first preference to AN drivers over recruiting externally because of public and government pressure. Therefore, QF recruitment slows, if not being completely suspended (including suspension of the cadetship program perhaps).
And the ex-AN crew that were not taken by QF? Well, I agree with a previous reply that some older pilots will opt for early retirement, some may go abroad, some may take the opportunity to move in to a different industry that perhaps they may have prior experience or training.
But, I still see an excess of pilots. Not to mention all of the would be QF direct entry applicants now frozen until further notice. So then these experienced people take jobs flying for the premier charter and regional companies. This effectively creates a clog in the system that we have seen emerging in recent years whereby pilots move their way up through the ranks, eventually ending up in the airlines. Now all of a sudden the whole system is reversed and people will be diving on whatever job they can get.
This could lead to an economic situation that may see the Australian aviation industry operating at full capacity for several years at least (without opportunity for employment) until the next lot of fleet expansions and upgrades are required. Things are looking to become stagnet.
Of course, I neglected possible
VB expansions, but I thought they would be insignificant in portraying my concerns.
I will keep on moving forward in an effort to reach my goals, hoping that something good comes of this whole AN mess. If nothing good happens, a lot of wannabes and less experienced guys like myself could realise our worst nightmares - we have been / are working very hard towards achieving goals that are unobtainable.
Regards.
[ 16 September 2001: Message edited by: peanutter ]