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Old 14th July 2005 | 02:18
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Halfbaked_Boy
 
Joined: Jan 2003
Posts: 516
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From: Northampton
Get your TAFs right

G'day chaps,

I see a lot of people (including myself) looking at 'PROB30s and PROB40s' on their TAFs and remarking, "30% probability of this, 40% probability of that..." etc etc.

However I was recently enlightened/corrected to believe that this is in fact nonsense and that a '30' can be thought of as 'low probability' and a '40' as 'high probability'.

This does seem more logical for two reasons I can think of, 1) Why is it ONLY ever '30' or '40', and 2) A forecast cannot generally be absolutely certain of the future weather anyway, let alone label it with a quantitative value in the form of a percentage.

Any ideas?

Cheers, Jack.

Last edited by Halfbaked_Boy; 14th July 2005 at 12:39.
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