Estimated jobs in the next five years
Hay guys get are spel chexer.
What about jobs in OZ?
Based on the fact we grew from 649 a decade ago to 1,206 today then we should see our fleet grow to about 1,780 machines in 2009. An increase of about 575, or an extra 100 helicopters per year. Assuming a working helicopter flies 400 hours per year, they will fly 230,000 hours more in five years than today.
Once again using raw data, and assuming a pilot flies 450 hours per year, we will need an extra 515 pilots.
Now there is another factor: old farts ….ageing ……baby boomers …… grandkids…..
These are guesses only. If we had a uniform “pyramid” of pilots ages then taking the average working life of a pilot as 30 years, about 3% retired each year. Add to that another 8% who go find another job or become sick, then in a static population you have about 11% or more who drop out each year. (My guess is 15%.)
But the fleet is expanding at almost 8% (compound interest calculation?)
Now take the 11% dropping away and add the growth 8% then the active pilot group must get fresh blood at the rate of 19% each year to keep bums on seats.
Problem. We have the Viet Vets almost gone, and now baby boomers who are giving it away. CASA suggests the average of a pilot is in late forties, and engineers even higher, due to shortages in the young people. This causes a bulge in the pyramid.
This causes another shortage as the bulge passes away into retirement. (Bran flakes?)
Today, the mustering operators are saying they are losing their experienced pilots to the turbine operators, and are seeing a wave of low hour pilots heading their way.
Which is why we need to find an easier path for the new guys to get that first job; which was the reason for these posts in the beginning.
Can someone update these thoughts?