Since 1945 we have never ever run out of pilots - there is seemingly, and regretably, and inexhaustable supply!
Whatever number you crunch the fact is there will be at least 10 other equally qualified bright talented pleasant Others applying and in the running for it. So its never going to be easy.
Post Sept 11th it was practically impossible for 18 months to get a job. Then for a year it was very hard. Now it has become hard.
Its therefore not a bad time to be in or be starting training. It'll probably be even better in a years time.
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Looking into the PPRuNe Crystal Ball I see some interesting swirls of mist:
The numbers of people able and willing to self sponsor an ATPL course may dramatically fall in the coming years.
The vast majority of self sponsors are using money taken out of property (their own or their parents) and borrowed from the banks as career loans. Lets fast forward 18 months and put interest rates back at their historical norm of 6% and lets knock a very modest 10% of house prices. We'll also assume that the UK economy has faltered slightly from its Longest Period Of Growth In History.
1) Mum and Dad will not feel comfortable with remortgaging the house for Junior when its going down in value.
2) Juniors house bought anytime since 2002 will be worth less than he paid for it with a tiny deposit so there is no equity there.
3) Everyone is groaning under the weight of mortgage repayments anyway.
4) Banks will be very very careful with issuing debt to people. A 'business plan' to become and airline pilot is going to be a very hard sell.
5) The cheaper North American flight training route has all but been killed off by the ramification of Sept11th.
6) The combined cost of an Integrated ATPL course followed by a £23k self bonded loan to join an airline cadet scheme is now in the region of £100,000. This is simply too much money to justify when the take-home pay from such a job will be about £2,600 a month average for the first 10 years. With a BoE base rate at 6% you would be paying for a straight loan something like 7.9% £100k over 10 years would therefore cost £1196 a month to repay. Knock off your utilities, car, council tax, rent and food and you are going to be crippled for a decade.
7) Flying training is set to become more expensive. The whole fleet of UK training aircraft now has an average build date of 1985. Instructors with experience are now becoming very rare indeed. To attract experienced instructors to stay is going to take more money and better terms and conditions.
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Cheers
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