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Are we actually going to see a large outflow, either through redundancy or PVR, in the next 18 months?
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Yes we are! 1000s going through redundancy is a large outflow in anyones book. PVRs will increase with the dissillusioned who don't get it going anyway! It happened on the last lot of redundancy and it'll happen again.
I'm sure this has been taken into account, what hasn't is the efect that cutting through the bone this time will have. I for one have never seen the levels of dissalusionment in the 25+ years in the mob thats arround today. Granted not everyone who complains will leave but as those left behind see comitments failing to reduce and less and less available to do the OOA, Guard, detachments etc, then we will see what happens. I'd bet FRI will return as the aircrew see monthly hours reduce not just through cost of fuel cuts but through less serviceable ac available. Cuts in spares and Eng manpower will have an effect in the end.