Ren,
I'd just like to answer some of your points.
Please keep in mind that during this period Ingrid was a Cat 5 (not since 100 years), so some level of caution or respect should have been shown. Talking to several people who lived through Tracy I found a common thread. Ingrid slowed and turned remarkably close to where Tracy turned toward Darwin. All these people were lulled into a false sence of security by the light local winds in Darwin before and suprised at the speed at which the wind picked up. Hardly enough time to drive from the shops to get home for some.
So regarding -
1. when your in a C310 at cruise and your ground speed indicates -ve 25km/h. Really, if you had the choice would you even want to fly in the vicinity?
2. In plenty of time before the cyclone could hit. The wind at DN was already gusting to 25kts at 1400hrs on Sun.
3. Well if the guys at the B.O.M. can't predict its path with their models and super computers then I would say experience has little to do with making these type of decisions. Just common sense. What would the insurance companies say to the insured when going for a claim for a damaged aircraft at DN when the area was under a cyclone warning. The specific warning even said that the wind WILL gust to 120km/h at Darwin in the evening of Sun (Even though later it didn't). What more do you need to know for risk assessment?
4. Yes in Carnarvon years ago.