Keith, I'm by no means saying that we are about to see the end of modular courses, but I do believe that the trend is against them and that their continued existence in the long term must be at least subject to some doubt. It rather depends on how the airlines - or rather, their recruiting people - decide they want to do things. Those who have a history of accepting, and being happy with, modular graduates will no doubt wish to continue doing so. However, those airlines that are expanding rapidly (and thus are forming an ever-larger share of pilot employment) yet wish to stick to their 'core' business will undoubtedly contract out their ab-initio recruiting to organisations like CTC or Oxford. If that requires an expansion of integrated capacity at the expense of modular capacity, the schools will do it. And new - currently modular - schools will enter the market.
Eventually, I can foresee integrated becoming more and more the norm, and then the pressure will be on, and by, the regulators to make it the only method of obtaining a licence (with the MCL as the cheap option for airlines that run their own training). We're a very long way from that, but I think the trend is noticeable and accelerating.
Scroggs