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Old 19th Dec 2004, 03:49
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typhoonpilot
 
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Okay, fair enough, that clarifies the question. The Anti-Secession Law that you speak of has yet to pass, but it appears to be an attempt by the mainland to justify an invasion at the world court/UN level in the event of an actual declaration of independence by Taiwan. The PRC has been engaged in this propaganda war for so long that most people actually believe that Taiwan is a part of PRC, a renegade province, if you will. It didn't help that Chiang Kai Shek's ( otherwise known as Cash My Check ) policy after the Nationalist loss in 48/49 was that they were still the legitiamte government of mainland China and that they had a policy of eventual reunification.

When Cash My Check and two million of his followers fled to Taiwan in 48/49 they slaughtered and/or brutally suppressed the native Taiwanese who objected. It is the native Taiwanese who don't see themselves as part of mainland China who are now close to the majority in government, along with those former Nationalists who have given up on the idea of reunification.

Another important point to remember is that the island of Formosa was controlled by Japan from 1895 to 1945. It was given to the Nationalists as part of the armistice at the end of WW II. So the PRC claim on Taiwan is tenuous and only based on control at varying periods prior to 1895.

Kind of a simple summary, I know, but the gist is correct. I make this post to help deflect some of the mainland's propaganda. They presently have over 400 missiles lined up on the Fujian Coast pointed at Taiwan. Any invasion of Taiwan would start with a missile barrage.

What will happen and who might get involved is anyone's guess. The pro-independence movement in Taiwan just suffered a little defeat in that they did not win a majority in the government and Chen Shui-Bian is stepping down as head of the Democratic Progressive Party. That will keep things at an impass for now and probably the next couple of years. Further, with Beijing being the host of the 2008 Summer Olympics is is unlikely they will do anything prior to then so as not to turn world opinion hostile towards them and ruin their Olympics.

I would be pretty comfortable going there for a 3 to 4 year contract.


Typhoonpilot
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