Wouldn't the 1286 ATPL's have to have 1500 hrs TT of which 500 must be multi-crew, and therefore are probably already employed by an airline? So if this figure has gone up by 127, that can be interpreted as a good sign that the job market is growing.
Also, if the majority of the 866 CPL's need to now go and get IR's before getting to the frozen ATPL stage, I'd say the best indicator of how big the current pool is would be the number of MEIR's issued.