NC - if precedent is followed, it will be the junior out of 201 and 206.
120 is protected (under the precedent) since it was awarded its standard early (for its work in the Battle of the Atlantic). Previously, this honour has ensured that it doesn't go in cuts. IIRC, there is evidence in the PRO that 120 wasn't due to receive Nimrod MR 1, but this was overturned when someone pointed out the matter of the standard.
By the by, this is why 617 is still with us - early award of standard, and despite being junior to a number of other numberplates, this has led to other units getting the chop.
When the RAF is cut back to 3 squadrons, they'll be II(AC), 120 and 617...
Now, where did I put my anorak?