Interesting points. But my RR moles tell me that the core development required to hit 125k/lb, while extensive, was no greater than that required for the GE90 and was pretty much "low risk" (well, they would say that wouldn't they).
Of course they would.
I will provide some more perspective and let you be the judge. Boeing failed to launch the B777X in 1997 with a proposed 102-104klb engine. However, RR run a Trent 8104 development engine test anyway. Why? Becuase they wanted to show Boeing that Rolls was the only engine company willing to commit to Boeing's B777X. Boeing struggled with the design and even considered T/APU, i.e., using the APU for additional thrust on takeoff. If it was indeed easy for Rolls to grow the Trent 8104 beyond 110klb, wouldn't you think that they have jumped on the opportunity? After all, they already had an engine built! Why would they allow GE to "sneak" in? In 1997, GE even pulled out at the last minute in committing a 102klb engine for the then B777X.
Among others, I'm told that TG, CX and SQ would have signed up for the model long before now if Boeing had responded favourably to their request for RR power.
TG is hardly a gage. They would order any airframes, any engines under the sun. Their experience with the B777 engine was not terribly good, especially on the Trent 892 on the -300. At one point, they lost their 180-minute ETOPS rating and was close to losing the 120-minute ETOPS rating. Of late, they seemed to have decided to go mostly with Airbus, partly driven by politics. However, the B7E7 might have changed the wind again at TG.
CX is reluctant of operating twins on long haul especially ETOPS. SARS further postponed their decision. My understanding is the GE90 is not a deterrent for CX, but I would agree with a Rolls engine, we could have a more expedite decision.
SQ's decision was also slowed by SARS. Once again, the GE90 is also not a deterrent. Also, if Rolls was able to penetrate an all-P&W fleet at SQ in 1995 and now become the primary engine supplier at SQ, it means SQ will not be fixated on an engine supplier. Money talks, especially at SQ.
But, from an economcs perspective, I suspect that the -300ER wipes the floor with the A340-600 and that, in the absence of any alternative, the -300ER will eventually outsell the A346 comprehensively.
Agree with you whole-heartedly.
