No.6 is already scheduled to be the first of the Jag units to disappear (down declaring on 1 November 2006), with the others following in 07 and 08.
The problem is that getting rid of the Jag early would:
a) result in an unacceptable loss of capability.
b) be getting rid of arguably the most cost-effective way of delivering capability
c) make it more difficult to maintain a single-seat OS-experienced cadre for the Typhoon force, which requires at least four such blokes for each forming EF AD squadron (and presumably more for the FB and MR squadrons?), along with eight F3 mates and no more than four ab initios.
If anything, as the EF slips to the right, the Jag force needs to be bolstered and even expanded, perhaps by adding some of those nearly new jets now sitting as GI airframes at Cosford. One could see real value in the Jags being used in the way that the Hunters of 45/58 Squadrons were used back in the 70s, maintaining a pool of OS-trained single seat pilots pending the availability of Typhoon vacancies.
Who When Why
It's all gone very quiet on F3 ALARM, and my guess is that the one year's funding gained with the original UOR has run out and not been replaced.
Cutting a GR7 Squadron, a GR4 Squadron and an F3 Squadron would all make sense if the released airframes were used to sustain the remaining aircraft through to a later OSD, helping to cover the gaps left by Typhoon, JSF and FOA delays, and if surplus aircrew were used to plug gaps and man the extra Jag units!
I could see the Puma fleet down-sizing (even with the extra ex-SAAF airframes bought recently - anyone know what happened to those?) simply because the airframes are old, tired and well-used.
Quiz question: How many Gripens could you buy for the £5.5 - 5.8 Bn we're spending on these two carriers?
A: About 230-250........