Time to Command??
Very tough question given the huge movement of the goalposts by EK management. The decision to forego the established seniority list in favour of DEC's and the fact there is no contractual obligation to provide equal (or in fact ANY) opportunities for command in the expat F/O contracts raises a whole new set of possiblities.
One of the issues I am surprised hasn't surfaced yet is whether there will be ANY commands for future or current expat F/O's in EK in the not too distant future. Think it couldn't happen; then think again. It may have already begun.
Everyone seems to assume because of the planned expansion rate everyone joining the company will get a left seat in the future. Everyone seems reassured by the management statements that they only intend upon hiring 100 or so DEC's to fill the "short term void" (which incidentally really does not exist; it has been created by the management to justify the entry of DEC's).
Just for argument sake, what if the DEC program ends up being a success in the eyes of management (due to either training cost savings, perceived increases in experience which you could argue we would attain by hiring an "experienced" DEC and keeping our very experienced F/O's in the RH seat, etc); would that not give them pause to reconsider the entire issue of "limited" DEC's?
Playing devils advocate, I would say that should the current DEC program work out as management feels it will then there is a very real chance EK could go the way of other Far East and Middle East airlines who have reduced or entirely eliminated expat F/O to Capt upgrades and keep the current EK F/O's as F/O's. This of course would not apply to local F/O's who would be given upgrade because they are locals. Is there 600 DEC's in this world EK could hire in the next 8 years (75/year)? Absolutely; and probably more so now that many Captains in "less than ideal" airlines around the world with less than 3000 hours PIC (who may have come to EK as F/O's before the DEC changes) are now forgoing application to EK as F/O's and instead are staying at their current companies to get the PIC hours to apply as DEC's to EK.
Couldn't happen?? Same people thought that at NASDAQ 5000! In my opinion it is not outside the realm of possibility and in fact very possible. And should that be the case, maybe the question everyone should be asking should not be WHEN but IF a command is possible (and it better be clearly spelled out in your contract if you are counting on it). And if not, can you afford to spend the remainder of your career in EK at the F/O wage scales?