It’s been a while but as I recall it it can be very much a case (SWIDT) of what V 2 said…
A heck of a lot of short haul and quite a few long haul pax don’t check in bags and Long Haul at least there’s a variability in payload due to cargo, so the basic numbers on the loadsheet may not tell the full story…
Sometimes the first clue you got something was amiss was when you started getting ACARS (datalink) messages mid-flight from HQ giving the names of multiple passengers who needed to contact customer services on arrival.