Originally Posted by
KeyPilot
Possible but unlikely.
Actually, I am not referring to a broad strategic or even operational level counterattack.
I am looking at the current advance from Avdiika area westwards at the tactical level for the capacity for a counterattack. (Brigade/Division/Corps(-))
Going back to military history on this one... the Wehrmacht had a penchant for counterattack at roughly "the culminating point" (which you mentioned) of their opponent's attack that was quite often effective at the tactical level. It was an aspect to the
auftragstaktik theme. (And no, I am not sure how that might fit into the Ukrainian Army's current concept of Operations)
Whilst Russia is clearly in the ascendency currently, their current offensive will culminate at some point and then Ukraine will then have an opportunity to hit back.
They don't have to wait for November to do that. What I had in mind as I asked that question, as regards the time horizon, is before the end of June. Not sure if they can get in a counter blow in that time horizon.
The big binary question is who wins the US Presidential election. If Trump then sadly this will substantially increase the probability of your thesis coming to pass.
No.
My thesis/inquiry has nothing to do with Trump, nor an election, and the time horizon I am envisioning is during the summer (June may be too optimistic) and at the tactical (brigade/division/corps) level, not the "Take back large percentages of occupied territory" EAC level.
I have an idea that they really do want to get Kherson back, though, and believe that at some point another move in that sector will happen in due course.
As to Kharkov/Kharkiv, I don't think Ukraine can afford to lose that major city, and I get the idea that Vlad's concept is "If I can't have it I'll just wreck it".
