Originally Posted by
43Inches
No it doesn't but some of the statements made earlier were asserting like it was a known fact that the aircraft was turning or starting to turn base at the time. Hence my comment that there is no evidence yet that a base turn was in process or about to be commenced at the time. The location is just in the vicinity of where we would expect the base turn to occur. I also see the (ground) speed was gradually decreasing for most of the downwind leg, there does not appear to be any sudden decrease to indicate they were about to do anything.
I disagree with the speed decreasing on "most of the downwind leg", as it was a fairly constant 90kts for around the middle third, but certainly agree that it's impossible to draw any concrete conclusions from the data available. The fact that the last communication with tower on the downwind leg was normal (and was likely made late downwind), and there is nothing that sticks out in the data to suggest that anything was amiss until the point where the pilot did or would turn to base, makes me suspect that all was more than likely well up until this point in time.
In response to any posts suggesting that mental health might have played a role in this, I don't believe that for a second. Something sudden has happened that the pilot has been unable to or has incorrectly responded to. I don't think it's a run of the mill 'pilot error' scenario, and so I don't believe we'll get answers any time soon. My only hope is that the ATSB can come to a clear cut conclusion for all concerned. In the meantime, my thoughts and prayers are with all involved.