Originally Posted by
43Inches
No it doesn't but some of the statements made earlier were asserting like it was a known fact that the aircraft was turning or starting to turn base at the time. Hence my comment that there is no evidence yet that a base turn was in process or about to be commenced at the time. The location is just in the vicinity of where we would expect the base turn to occur. I also see the (ground) speed was gradually decreasing for most of the downwind leg, there does not appear to be any sudden decrease to indicate they were about to do anything.
Valid point. The timing is around a base leg, so sure that’s the assumption that most will jump to. But it could just be a case of timing
making it look like it was connected to a base turn, when it wasn’t. The bank was to the left. This bank could commenced while on downwind for all we know, completely unrelated to a base turn. If anything, I would expect any major issues to occur during the turn on final or established base.
The speed reduction mid downwind would line up with 10% of flap being deployed. Such will not cause loss of control from any cable failure. I’d expect a bank to the left, but nothing too volatile. Even for the most inexperienced, I would still expect a wings level control input for such a bank, didn’t seem to happen here, track is fairly constant on a left heading until impact. Obviously other questions to be asked if flap wasn’t the cause of that speed bleed on downwind.