Originally Posted by
jonas64
Does it make a big difference whether the pilot had actually commenced the turn or was merely preparing to turn (which clearly he was going by the drop in airspeed prior the point at which the turn was expected). Either way the point at which he was either commencing the turn or was about to do so, is where something went horribly wrong.
No it doesn't but some of the statements made earlier were asserting like it was a known fact that the aircraft was turning or starting to turn base at the time. Hence my comment that there is no evidence yet that a base turn was in process or about to be commenced at the time. The location is just in the vicinity of where we would expect the base turn to occur. I also see the (ground) speed was gradually decreasing for most of the downwind leg, there does not appear to be any sudden decrease to indicate they were about to do anything.