The IL-76 shoot down continues to have repercussions, given Vlads wanton disregard for the lives of POWs. The problem remains Vlad has told the world that 60 POWs were on board. So here is the issue. The video of the loading of the "POW's" that has been put out by Russian media is not at Belgorod. There are 2 main ramps at Belgorod, and none of them look like the one in the video. There is no way to park a YAK-40, AN-72 and an IL-76 in Belgorod on the ramp that looks anything like the video, therefore, the loading is somewhere else.
If there are POWs on the plane, then the plane would be inbound to Belgorod.
The position of the crash is well established, it is close to the location on wikipedia, it hits the trees on the west side of the open field. The drone images show the destruction of the trees as the aircraft has descended the final few meters to the ground, and trees have been knocked down in the direction of the ground scar. The ground impact direction is approximately 050 True. The track from Belgorod Airport to the crash site is 061True.
The distance from the mid point of the runway at Belgorod is ~29.2nm, brg 061T to the smoke bearing intercept with the track from Belgorod, the intercept is at 50°52'34"N 37°17'02"E, and is around a minimum of 5900-5955m from the second camera position.
Between the start of the video and the image of the smoke, the camera is moved to the north from immediately outside of the building entrance to the east of the roadway, the video is on the walkway beside the building, and they move toward the triangular sign, around 15 meters north of the first position. A fair pace.
There is a lot of uncertainty on the distance to the smoke puff, however, the azimuth is pretty clear, and the video that had the impact at ~t=6s had a sharp crack sound at t=17s following which the car alarms sound. The distance to the ground impact is well known, (BTW, it is not 7km), it is around 4800m, to the centerlne of the ground scar.
Temperature at Belgorod was reported to have a high of -6 and a low of -9. It is during daylight, but also around 30nm+ away from the reporting station at UUOB.
Assuming -6C temp, a= 327m/sec, then :
the track is almost directly in line with outbound from UUOB to the ENE, (~060T) Distance from the missile smoke visual to the tree impact os 2.32nm.
The main point on this is the aircraft was certainly not going into Belgorod, it was outbound, and therefore cannot have had "POW's" on board. The timing errors in this rough "back of envelope" estimate using time offsets probably put the location marked below to the SW of the actual position of the strike, but in all cases, the plane is flying ENE, away from Belgorod. This analysis gives a very high speed impact, higher than I would expect to have occurred, but it is in the right rough order of merit.
If Russia turns up Ukrainian bodies purporting to be from the plane, they were not on this plane, and that would be a deliberate premeditated war crime, which is mainly just another day in Russia ending in Y.
The solution of the positions is relatively simple it is the same as the old "Julie" acoustics technique but far easier, we have an exact position of the impact point, and then we have a transient from the missile strike, although this being Russia, that could have been any old Lada blowing up too.
I am not fazed about the accuracy of this, am more interested in the track proof to make a point before Vlad "finds" new dead bodies of Ukrainians conveniently.
As far as bodies go, this aircraft hit at extremely high speed, well above MMO, there would be few if any bodies in one piece at all. In The Hague, Russia would need to show why they were outbound with the POWs not inbound. Showing up with pristine bodies would be a glaring bogus case, and any Ukrainians would appear to be simply a deliberate desecration or murder/desecration, which is quite on the cards, it is after all Russia and their sociopathic dictator.
