Originally Posted by
CVividasku
In your opinion, what was the classification of this incident according to the ERC matrix ?
In my opinion, it lies between 2 and 21.
The flight path was never really dangerous. One call from one pilot was enough to resolve the issue.
There are other systems that help prevent escalation into more serious trouble (EGPWS, TCAS,..)
I have the same question, regarding crashes this time. Ask the exact same questions, however take the accident scenario for question 1, and what should have happened for question 2.
Then go into the matrix. For example AF447 should have been a 502, at worst. Concorde crash was a 2500.
However, some deadly crashes should have been classified 50 or 102. There are many examples where lots of barriers synchronised to be all defective together, whereas they shouldn't have been.
I don't think we share the same understanding of how the ERC works, but I stand to be corrected. It doesn't work for accidents that have happened. It starts with Q1 (funnily enough) which asks what would have been the likely outcome
if it escalated into an accident. The most likely outcome of disorientation IMC and at low level is LOC-I, which is going to be catastrophic. Only then do you start to look at the effectiveness of the remaining barriers. For this event, the barriers operated but it was limited effectiveness in my view as the control wrestling went on for a full 53 seconds.
If the BEA didn't think it could have escalated into an accident scenario, I suspect there would not have been a full-blown Annex 13 investigation.