Are we ever going to see US style pay. If not, why not?

[night mission]

The USA being heavily unionized in aviation has helped at top tier airlines, but the regional feeders have not benefited by unionization like their big iron colleges. Entry level airline jobs in the USA had, until COVID induced convulsions, kept pilot pay quite low for the entry level aviator. The top pay for CAPT's was only about double entry pay and still below what a 2nd or 3rd year pilot would make at a legacy US air carrier. Poor pay and conditions at regional airlines along with bad T&C's plus a lot of bad press over several years had its affect on dissuading younger potential avatars from considering the career. Bad terms and pay had the affect of lowering numbers. The airlines had a problem in attracting and keeping new hires, but felt comfortable with how their T&C's were not impacting attrition hier up the seniority latter. So outside their contracts, they offered hiring bonuses to persuade pilots to join even though post 1st year rates remained poor. The unions counldn't influence the process, as it was terms to induce hiring, not contacted pay. It worked until it didn't. With major airlines poaching heavily, regionals couldn't keep enough staff in the CAPT's seat to man the flights and no amount of (reasonable money) was going to keep anyone onboard any longer then they had to. The dilemma has created a situation where these carrier has to basically double pay to keep or attract staff. The pilot shortage that many hoped for, most believe would never happen, and airlines begrudging are dealing with (at least the bottom feeders deluded themselves ,they could avoid or manage) has boosted both pay and interest in airline flying beyond anyones recent dreams.

Fear not, when supply and demand swings back in favor of employers, the affect on pay and terms will be fast and harsh. Unions will have no effect on keeping recent gains, just as improvements in pay have has no effect in keeping pilots from jumping to better pay and prestige airlines when they get the offers. It just the way it is.