The career of piloting is hitting fundamental shifts of the career choice influencing conditions.
1. Flying becomes cheaper and cheaper (lets not get distracted by the price surge after covid due to capacity constraints). This effect becomes even more prevalent when compared to the buying power of the populations. This means more and more people fly, meaning aviation need a higher percentage of young people from the overall population to convince them to become pilots.
2. The entry barriers into the job have increased. 1500h rule in the US, smaller military fleets, no full sponsorships anymore in Europe (although BA seems to revert that)
3. The job has become less attractive due to:
3.a: the work conditions have deteriorated, the job pays less
3.b: the work conditions have deteriorated: the job expects more work, giving less buffer for requesting and influencing private life
3.c: you don't need to be an airliner anymore to travel and see the world, because traveling became so much cheaper (see point 1.)
4. in the talent pool, where aspiring pilots are coming from, most other fitting jobs now offer much better work life balance:
4.a: remote working, home office
4.b: yearly hours account: you can make overtime one week and take 2 days off the next week, if it suits your private plans
4.c: holidays usually when you want and need it and not when the capacitiy planning allows it
4.d: in general not the lifelong external control over your life in terms of weekends, birthdays, important celebrations etc. like pilots have to endure under their assigned duty planning
5. the younger ones are reluctant to enter an industry that has a bad reputation with regard to climat
I am absolutely convinced if the industry wants to keep growing it will have to address these issues: meaning mostly to lower the entry barriers and to fundamentally change the work-lifestyle-balance of crews.
The industry will need to increase the amount of pilots more than just for growth, to offer better lifestyle to convince young people to get into the career. That will mean a fundamental rethink of the training model.
Alternatively you can cover the problem with a lot of money and offer part time to the guys who want more lifestyle.