AsA TIBA/TRA/OPR Restrictions

[Clinton McKenzie]

Originally Posted by Advance

There is an old joke along the lines that God and the Devil have a telephone hook up each week; this week it's God's turn to ring Nick...
G: "Hey Nick, how is it going down there?
D: "Actually God, its going great - we have an engineer down here - he's installed air conditioning and flush toilets..."
G: "Nick, you know the rules, you are not allowed engineers, send him up here."
D: "No God, we rather like what he is doing for us."
G: "Send him up here or I'll sue.
D: "And tell me God, where would you get a lawyer?"

Now with apologies to an old mate who is a lawyer and regularly posts on here - this is exactly what applies to Airservices.

Air (no) Services have the power to issue those huge and complex NOTAMS in this post but they simply do not have the expertise to understand, evaluate and quantify the risks and effects of their decisions.
Airservices is simply a service provider; its responsibilities are in the AirServices Act.
It no longer has highly experienced, current IFR heavy aircraft pilots on staff. It has no performance engineers.
And nor should it. They do not belong with a service provider.

In short, AsA promulgates these changes without having the in house expertise to understand the safety consequences for aircraft operating in all manner of weather conditions in IMC and without ATC separation services.
By what imaginary expertise do they carry out a safety case covering their actions?

I suggest Australia return to the integrated FAA model where both regulation and service provision are in the one organisation with one CEO and one responsible Minister.
The currrent system is broken.
CASA apparently knows this but what can it do?
Take AsA to court as it would a pilot? That would help!!
Suspend or Cancel AsA's operating licences? I am not sure that would get much political or public support!

In short: we have a wholly imaginary safety system. It is broke and it needs fixing.... NOW would be good.

There’s not a lawyer joke I haven’t been told, usually more than once, Advance!

I agree with your bottom line:We have a wholly imaginary safety system. That outcome is caused primarily by politics: A few decades of governments who have left CASA, ATSB and Airservices mostly to their own devices, provided they only ever bring good news or – in exceptional circumstances – euphemisms disguising bad news.

Everything is fine, and the short-term and unexpected challenges are being dealt with effectively. Australia’s enviable air safety record, contributed to by Australia’s world-leading air traffic control system, is caused by these agencies. If they were dysfunctional, we wouldn’t have our enviable air safety record, would we. It stands to reason. Absence of evidence in the form of mid-airs is evidence of absence of the risk of mid-airs. (Except the inconvenient, “rare operational” IFR mid-air in G near Mangalore, and that inconvenient mid-air near Gympie, involving the kinds of aircraft which share G airspace with RPT aircraft, and…).

The mechanism essential to the proper governance of these agencies has been malfunctioning for some time. There’s little effective Parliamentary scrutiny.

After each change of government I watch the major party members who staunchly defended senior public officials while in government swap seats with the major party (opposition) members who roundly criticised those officials while in opposition and – without skipping a beat – the previous staunch defenders become the new criticisers and the previous criticisers become the new staunch defenders. It’s a symbiosis in which both ‘sides’ of politics know that, ultimately, neither’s long-term interests are served by a really frank and fearless public sector revealing the very dirty laundry strewn throughout the halls of government. The senior echelons of the public sector know their longevity depends on delivering good news.

Everything is fine and any short-term and unexpected challenges are minor and being managed effectively.

This feature of the public sector is why RoboDebt survived for as long as it did.

Most of the proper Parliamentary scrutiny these days is done by cross-benchers. But they are spread way too thin. It’s like a flea on the rump of an elephant.

CASA, ATSB and Airservices are in their own mini-symbiosis. The interests of their senior echelons are served by delivering only good news about themselves and each other.

Imagine if the truth about Australia’s third-world airspace system and the causes of the deterioration actually dawned on the public. Questions would be asked of CASA and ATSB. Better for all concerned if the united message is that everything’s fine and any short-term and unexpected challenges are minor and being managed effectively and safely. Relax, Minister, everything’s under control (unless you’re in TIBA or G of course).

Imagine if the truth about the healthcare avoidance behaviours of pilots caused by fear of Avmed overreach got out. Aircraft passengers would start worrying because there’s a substantial probability that the flight crew have health issues they’re too scared to raise with health professionals. Better instead to stick with the comforting delusion that Avmed is the bastion between carnage and safety, keeping cockpits full of latter-day Neil Armstrongs.

(And all those Commonwealth-owned airports are being managed so as to promote the sound development of civil aviation and meet the current and future needs of civil aviation users, dontcha know. Just ask the airport operators and the Department responsible for administering the Airports Act.)

Suicide is the leading cause of death of young Australians. Eating disorders are killing them, too. Most of them will never be able to afford to buy a home. Literacy and numeracy levels are deteriorating. Australia has the highest per capita cocaine use in the world and is now a battle ground for competing, armed drug cartels. What a lucky country. Everything’s fine.

These outcomes are among the many reasons for Australians’ faith in politicians and public institutions being at an all time low. Most everyone has their own experience and insight into how busted ‘the government’ is.

The long term solution is inexorably happening. The major parties’ share of the primary vote is inexorably decreasing. Maybe they’ll wake up; maybe they won’t. For the time being they label themselves the ‘parties of government’ so as to suggest there are no other alternatives than Tweedle Dumb or Tweedle Dumber. It will be interesting to see if the populace falls for it, but the ever-expanding cross-bench suggests the populace won’t. (As H.L. Mencken said: Democracy is the theory that the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard.)

My primary fear is that when there is an aviation disaster involving an RPT hull loss, the patent self-interest of Airservices, CASA and ATSB will be served by pointing the finger at the crew and avoiding or downplaying the significance of any systemic issues. The natural response of government (of whichever recent ‘traditional’ persuasion) will be to throw more power and money at these agencies, to encourage them to redouble their efforts in the interests of aviation safety.

The system these agencies have been allowed to build creates a perverse incentive for them not to scrutinise and expose the failures in that very system, which failures cause actual reductions in safety. As you observe, Advance, the writers of these NOTAMs don’t have the expertise to assess the safety risks of what they are doing. They’re using NOTAMs as a tool to deal with a personnel management issue in Airservices, moving risks out of Airservices’ lap and creating risks (and costs) in ‘someone else’s’ lap. What the extent of those risks (and costs) are and whether the ‘someone elses’ are mitigating the risks adequately is not Airservices’ problem. It should be CASA’s problem, but what is CASA going to do about it? As you observe, Advance, any action by CASA would cause embarrassment and mayhem. Best instead to say that these are minor and unexpected issues being effectively managed (while keeping fingers crossed hoping that the diameter of the roulette wheel in the airspace shambles remains large enough to avoid a disaster).

At the moment the Parliament appears collectively incapable of seeing and doing anything substantial about what’s going on.

Fingers crossed, everyone.