Current forecast places 9:1 ratio to be broken in Roster 1 2024 at about 13ish percent. From there it keeps climbing to close to 30% external using present parameters in the forecasts.
Appoint and Second in Appendix A will kick in once the rolling 12 month average goes beyond 9:1 - which is important to note as thats measured off the point at which externals start turning up.
Externals are slated to start from August this year, at a rate for 2023 of 9.9% (I.e. a sliver inside 9:1).
Theres no reason for the company to stop interviewing externals to jet, as they are forecasting around 140 jet pilots needed in 2024 and 2025 each (based on current parameters), of which 100 are claimed to be internal turboprop movements. So they need a pool of 40 externals per year minimum HOWEVER.
The turboprop recruitment pool has all but dried up. I've been told they're down to around 2 eligible applications per month, and the total eligible pool is about 100 with a further 130 partially eligible. Turbos need around 150 new FOs per year to just keep up with the forecasts, so I assume it's all going to collapse in a huge heap within the next 12 months.
Essentially what I'm getting at is that the company cannot afford 100 turbo pilots to move to jet next year - hell, the ATR fleet is barely upright as is with training stretch. Appoint and Second will kick in as the fireworks fade on new years morning 2024, because we simply cannot supply what the forecast is saying.
Oh and to top it all off all the above figures are based on the regional airline recruiting 156 each year, which we might achieve this year but are guaranteed not to next year. What I'm trying to say is the above plan is even worse than anyone thinks it is. The parameters are all stuffed and I'm not sure anyone knows how to recover it at this point. Bring on a repeat of the Tag and Release debacle from yesteryear!
The only realistic future for the jet fleet is large percentage (I.e. more than 20%) external recruitment. You cant supply a larger pool (1100 jet pilots) with the flow through from a smaller pilot pool (650 regional pilots).