In 2013 and again in 2016 we had around 100 new hires, but those were our biggest years (that I know of) and we had more aircraft types to funnel new hires into. So 80 between the 3 current fleets must be close to capacity.
I’m not surprised the RPPP has reduced turnover, it’s a great Carrot. Previously it was mostly Captains and FO’s with ATPL’s who would leave to the Aussies but they’re likely far enough up the RSL that an 8 year stand down isn’t worth the risk, and Junior FO’s likely don’t have enough experience…. Yet.
Long term, I can see a situation arising where those in the middle who feel “stuck” will warn those below them to go early. Due to supply and Demand, the Aussie carriers will likely have to lower their requirements (or pay more) as the pool of Link Captain applications dries up with the RPPP. The RHS of a 737 or A320 earning six figures could look rather appealing to a 22 year old Q300 FO that’s #599 in line for Air NZ.
People leaving the Links used to create a Command Vacancy and shorten the queue to Air NZ, hence 4-6 years being the norm. If the RPPP succeeds in keeping Captains, career progression in the Links is going to be painfully slow. In the beginning it won’t be, should be lots of new Commands this year, hence why everyone’s happy. When it slows down however, or when we get to tag and release 2.0, that’s when I expect Junior FO’s will start voting with their feet. As you said, this will be the new choke point.
In terms of transparency for externals, they absolutely should know the seniority implications for them. But once there’s a build up of Tagged numbers, word gets out and they stop applying.
Last edited by ElZilcho; 19th Apr 2023 at 20:03.