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Old 11th Mar 2023, 16:15
  #13 (permalink)  
pattern_is_full
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Denver
Posts: 1,229
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It doesn't hurt to remember that "clumping" of anything is a perfectly normal characteristic of a RANDOM distribution.

I.E. if there are, say, 365 serious air traffic conflicts per year, that does not mean there will be a consistent seven per week or one per day - more likely a week with three and then a week with 11 - even excluding all other possible factors (season, time of day, etc.)

Add to that that humans are hypervigilant to possible patterns. Probably an evolved response for spotting tigers in the grass or Gaboon vipers in the leaves (those with hypervigilance to patterns tended to have better survival rates), but also a cause of "conspiracy theories." It is better to shy away from harmless things ten times, than get bitten once.

That is probably a factor in the recent "media awareness" - as well as simply an increase in media overall (including the "freelance reporters" of VASAviation, Aviation Herald, Blancolirio, FR24, and social media in general).

The problem is that patterns can also be a sign of real systemic dangers (sometimes there really is a viper in the leaves).

So the wheat has to be sorted from the chaff.

All of the above posts may be factors. So may disruptions of staffing over, and because of, the past three years, including "The Great Resignation." More "newbies" in cockpits or towers (regardless of gender, color etc.). Fewer people in towers to aid and supervise.
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