Originally Posted by
TayBee
If they were training, say, 30 cadets like TUI, I'd be very inclined to agree with you - but we are talking 200 per year. When the recession takes hold, whilst I'm sure EZY will weather the storm their expansion plans will probably reduce; and if no airlines are hiring, where is the outflow of pilots beyond FOs getting command upgrades as they retire?
If you are right that the recession won't affect pilot recruitment, then I stand by my initial statement that the flexibility afforded by an fATPL puts one in a much safer position - it is far less risky to have to wait for 6 months or so than to have spent everything on your MPL which lacks flying hours and 'await further instruction' from your provisional employer.
Don't forget Tui UK are training 30 cadets pa across a fleet of 49 737s. EZY are doing 200 cadets pa across a European fleet of c.320 A320 family. So in terms of scale, the ratio of cadets to aircraft is almost exactly the same. Tui also have a much bigger seasonality issues (too many pilots in the winter). Don't get me wrong, Tui is the better option if you can get it, I just don't see scale being a big differentiator.
Of course there's a risk the recession is bad and EZY drop MPLs but in that scenario I don't think you'll be any more likely to find that first job as a modular with an fATPL.
The big difference between now and Covid, as I understand it, is the MPLs fell through some licencing cracks for trainees who had not completed base training (i.e. previously they could not be issued any licence at all until the base training was complete - hence the decision by some to retrain on the ATPL route). Covid has prompted these issues to be worked through such that the CAA will effectively now issue "frozen" MPLs in the event a base training is not completed with the sponsoring airline. The trainee can then get other endorsements on the MPL licence (eg PPL/CPL) and/or complete base training with a different operator if it comes to that. Again, none of this is ideal or without issue, but the main point is getting a first cadet job on any licence in a recession bad enough that airlines are dropping their sponsored cadets is going to be extremely difficult.
Anyway, not trying to convince anyone either way (except maybe myself!) - just sharing my thoughts on it having gone through the process.