My two cents on the easyJet MPL having been offered a place having started down the modular path.
Cost: was budgeting for 50-60k for modular, then you need to factor in potentially having to pay for a type rating. So for Ryanair, prob the most likely first job for modular students in terms of numbers in the current market (who knows in two years...), that's another £30k. So you're looking at potentially £80-90k for Ryanair after TR. EZY MPL is c.£80k (excl accommodation, but you have to live somewhere during modular training too).
Risk: We've heard about what happened to EZY trainees during covid. But, to my knowledge, all have now been employed by EZY. Yes horrible and uncertain times and some made the (v unlucky as it turns out) decision to switch to ATPL and haven't been taken on, which seems unfair. Speaking to EZY training captains during my application and reading their posts on linkedin, it was acknowledged what happened wasn't nice, but it was an unprecedented situation for every airline with billions in overhead and close to zero revenue, with no idea what was going to happen. They claim to feel very uncomfortable with what happened with lessons learned on all sides, so it shouldn't happen again (fingers crossed). I was more worried about EZY getting bought and the new owner dropping the MPL, but their share price has gone up 60% in last few months so things look stronger on that front.
And on the flip side, MPL/sponsored programs remove the risk and uncertainty of "will I pass airline selection" at the other end of modular.
Recession: Related to the above, my instinct at the moment is that the current/imminent recession won't hamper UK airline recruitment too much. Loco forward bookings look very strong even with cost of living crisis etc. Covid was an unprecedented crisis and the recession will be nothing like as bad as Covid for airlines. As a sponsored MPL student I'd rate chances of employment as much higher than if you're modular if things are bad. Of course the advantage of modular is being able to time your finish and continue working/building a second career as a backup. But if you want to get paid to fly as quickly as possible, I don't think you'd be best placed as a modular student in a recession.
MPL restrictions: seems to be a bit of a myth these days that you'd be tied to a single airline until 1500hours. A few posters on pprune say they moved employers well under 1500 hours. And, for example, the Virgin second officer vacancy suggests they'll accept someone with an MPL and 200 hours in the last 12 months. The latter won't help if you get dropped by EZY before TR but is an example that you're not tied to a single employer for that long.
The Tui MPL looks a much better program with no upfront costs and, it would seem, Tui shouldering the risk as presumably you'd not have to pay them back if they drop you for whatever reason. But it will be much more competitive. Great if you can get a place.
I say all this as originally having completely dismissed MPL/integrated programs but changed my mind when I realised it was not likely to cost me much, if anything, more. I'm a bit older and lucky enough to have the savings to fund either approach but everyone's circumstances are different. Ultimately no one has a crystal ball and there are risks in whatever approach you take, just go in with eyes open and what works best and feels most comfortable for you.