I'm quite familiar with statistical analysis, but thank you for taking the time to have a crack at explaining standard deviation (σ).
A few points. The main point being that clearly you do not understand the ramifications of what you have just written with regards to your proposed flight path, in particular where you have placed the aircraft at 00:19:30 UTC (
ie at the 7th arc)
First up, the BTO error as calculated by the authors of the
Bayesian Methods in the Search for MH370 paper is conjectural. There has been considerable work done by others on the BTO error that determines it to be somewhat lower than the values (note: plural) quoted in Bayesian Methods for the 7th arc. For example, Doctors Iannello and Ulich have determined the BTO error to have a standard deviation of 29 μs.
Leaving that discussion aside, let's run with the Bayesian Methods' estimates for σ for the 7th arc; 63 μs at 00:19:29 UTC
and 43 μs at 00:19:37 UTC. Their average σ for the 7th arc is 53 μs.
However, let's leave that aside and run with your higher value of 63 μs.
I have no idea why you would be talking about BTO error in terms of lateral displacement from the arc (
eg "... 63 microseconds of one sigma is approximately 6.8 nautical miles laterally at latitude 34S.") The BTO error manifests itself
radially (
ie along the radius of the arc), not laterally. 63 μs equates to a 10.2 nm radial displacement.
However, let's leave that aside and run with your calculations for lateral displacement from the 7th arc. Your nominated location for the aircraft at 00:19:30 is 34.4°S 93.0°E. That position is some 33.3 nautical miles laterally west of the 7th arc. Using your calculations, that is the equivalent of -4.89 σ.
Statistically, that means that there is roughly a 0.0005 percent chance that your 00:19:30 position is correct (see, "
(t)he main point being that clearly you do not understand the ramifications of what you have just written ... "). That brings me back to my 1 January 2023 observation that,
Originally Posted by
MickG0105
You have nominated a location for the aircraft at 00:19:30 UTC that is manifestly incompatible with the data.
Separately, please read the section
Search area width from the ATSB's
MH370 - Definition of Underwater Search Areas of 3 December 2015. You will note that, contrary to what you have just written, the ATSB
did not use a ±3 σ BTO error range as part of their calculations in determining the search area width.
A review of the various maps and reports of underwater search areas completed will show that your statement about the ATSB only searching 2 nm inside the 7th arc at 34°S is also incorrect.
As to Ocean Infinity having performed "a quick scan", that's an unfortunate turn of phrase that might give rise to the impression that the OI work was not thorough. That would entirely misrepresent the very high quality of their work, arguably better than that achieved by the initial tow-fish operations closer to the 7th arc.
I would observe that the more you write, the more you demonstrate significant gaps in your understanding of the topic.
A word to the wise: Stop Writing.