If H175M is selected for NMH, then Airbus have said that they will move the global 175 production facility to North Wales. Do not underestimate the weight this will carry in the selection process.
Also, the use of the 135/145 at MFTS, with the same Helionix cockpit, means a short and cheap conversation to type. The MFTS experience of Airbus is very positive in terms of serviceability and availability- these things all carry weight.
I am told that Airbus believe there is a potential global market for the 175M of around 500 aircraft, but they need a high-profile launch customer. Because of this, stand-by for them to bid sn extremely competitive price, maybe even sell at cost (or a loss?) to get the future business that this contract would attract.
Much of this can be said for LH with the also unproven 149. However, with the disaster that Merlin and Wildcat have been in terms of problems, costs and availability, I would like to think that the MOD have learned their lesson and will run as far as possible from the Yeovil mafia with their deep ties to the Russian state.