Forced landing near Bankstown

[First_Principal]

I know that it's de rigueur to discuss post incident here, which I - generally - think is a good thing. I've occasionally learnt something new, as I'm sure others have, and I find the analysis some people come up with to be well thought out, logical and reasonable based on available data at the time.

I've rolled my eyes at the inevitable "let's wait until xxx official report" that some people trot out, and never thought I'd be the person to say that, hopefully I never will, but really?!

From available data we know the guy had an engine failure on final (ATC report by the pilot), there's a close witness whose reported what the pilot said to her ('stalled at 300ft"), and there's a reasonably believable comment that the firies had to deal with a minor fuel leak. From available photos it's possible to see damage to the aircraft that's consistent with the LHS wing hitting something during the landing phase, the LHS flap appears lowered but the RHS not (?), and there's some damage to one prop blade that could suggest it was turning when it impacted something (but it's impossible to be certain and given the other blade appears intact, and the failure report, it most likely wasn't). These are some things we know.

From this somehow people have arrived at a fuel issue associated with a failed tank change. Now while that's entirely possible of course it does seem a somewhat premature conclusion to come to based on the incredibly sparse information that appears presently available. It ignores such other possibilities such as carb icing (yes, it can happen in summer!) particularly given he was on final with reduced throttle and could have forgotten carb heat, an engine control manipulation mistake (leaned the mixture out instead of altering the throttle), catastrophic engine or associated component failure (yes, it certainly can occur under light load), electrical failure etc.

So, as a suggestion, I wonder if we could back up the bus and apply just a little science to this analysis? Perhaps someone with access to the then met report could confirm or eliminate any possibility of carb icing for a start? Maybe in a short time there will be more information that'll allow a far more rigorous analysis and conclusion, but at the moment I'm not seeing it...

Whatever the reason I hope the pilot continues on to have a long flying career, and that this simply becomes a colourful story of the past he can tell his as-yet unborn child about some time in the future.

FP.