Originally Posted by
FlightDetent
Dare I ask, how educated that guess is? There's people who spend 10+ years in the Mainland on these pages and none of them have such clear cut views. Neither the Fragrantly Harboured who might have a case even.
Although it's a pattern noticed repeatedly in your posts, WS, self proclaimed truths. 😳
Not sure, if I proclaim a "truth", my words are "My guess". Truths only exist in hard science (and even there it's disputed) or among liars.
Most people don't get any further than just "writing what they notice". The next step is to interpret these facts and what these facts imply. And that interpretation is often "soft", the facts aren't often that clear (or already interpreted), often the facts are conflicting, etc.
The challenge is to match these facts with other knowledge, more general principles, known goals/targets, try to find some "logic", etc, and from there "predict" what might happen. By doing this, you can be prepared in an early stage for what is coming and work on strategies to gain advantage compared to those, who don't get further than humbug complaining about the things they don't like. Once you get used to such an approach, it's even interesting and see, that your predictions indeed start to happen (of course, not always). Do this in business, and you can become very rich, like the new-tech people (I am personally not interested in more money, I have enough ;-) ).
Based on what was reported on CNN around the 2020 election, I "predicted" the steps Trump would take to try to revert the inevitable. I did predict he would try to falsify on the electors, I did predict, he would try to let the VP throw out the unwelcome election results, I did predict, he would initiate a violent insurrection attempt and some more of these things. And now, more and more of my predictions do surface to have been reality.
Of course, my predictions aren't always right, though often these do hit a nail. So, educated guesses, based on partial information.