It looks as if Labor will get a majority in its own right. (It is interesting to note that the AEC website still states that “0 of 151 House of Representatives seats have been declared”. So Australia has a new Prime Minister and other Ministers sworn in with zero seats declared one way or the other.)
Not good news for the ‘teal’ and other cross-benchers in the HoR. Subject to one possibility, the ‘teal’ and other cross-benchers should expect a courteous nod of the head by Labor members as they pass in the corridors of Parliament House, and not much more.
The one possibility is a repeat of Labor’s ‘Operation Slipper’ – that is, a defection from the opposition or cross-bench (in the case of ‘Operation Slipper’ it was Peter Slipper from the LNP) in return for some juicy reward (in Peter Slipper’s case, the Speakership) so that Labor has some ‘padding’ above a bare majority. After all, the Libs and the cross-benchers will be tempting Labor members to defect and there’s always the possibility of inconvenient coronaries. I suspect the faceless men in Labor will be looking, very carefully, at particularly the cross-bench, to see if someone’s ripe for defection ready to step up to the Speakership in the public interest. (I’d jump for joy if Bob Katter became Speaker – talk about entertaining!)
That possibility aside, the main legislative game is now the Senate (assuming the AEC eventually declares HoR seats in the way the pundits are predicting they will go). I predict that Labor and the Coalition will vote together on many Bills in the Senate.